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Llantwit Major vs Llanelli

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Sat, Sep 26, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Llantwit Major host Llanelli in the Cymru South. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Llantwit Major at 1.31 goals for, 1.78 against; Llanelli at 0.74 for, 2.65 against. Head-to-head, Llantwit Major have won 0 to Llanelli's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Jan 17, 2025, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 2.31 vs 1.63, favoring Llantwit Major. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Llantwit Major
20%
Draws
40%
Llanelli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Llanelli haven't matched Llantwit Major's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Llanelli have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Llantwit Major Clean Sheet 14%
Llanelli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Llantwit Major Llanelli
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 9 3
Draws 9 5
Losses 14 23
Goals Scored 1.31 0.74
Goals Conceded 1.78 2.65
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2025 Cymru South
Llanelli vs Llantwit Major
2:0
Aug 10, 2024 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Llanelli
2:2
Mar 8, 2024 Cymru South
Llanelli vs Llantwit Major
2:1
Oct 13, 2023 FAW Welsh Cup
Llanelli vs Llantwit Major
4:0
Aug 28, 2023 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Llanelli
2:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Llantwit Major 31 / 100
Llanelli 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Llantwit Major Llanelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Llanelli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Attacking prowess: Llantwit Major scored in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Llanelli's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Llantwit Major VS Llanelli
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
2.5 Goals Conceded 4
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Llantwit Major

(Home)
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1
Llantwit Major
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1
Baglan Dragons
07 Aug
Afan Lido
5 : 0
Llantwit Major
01 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 3
Pure Swansea
Page 1 of 7

Llanelli

(Away)
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0
Llanelli
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2
Treowen
31 Aug
Aberystwyth
4 : 0
Llanelli
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2
Carmarthen Town
22 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
4 : 2
Llanelli
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 6 5 1 0 22:5 16
2 Aberystwyth 6 5 0 1 19:7 15
3 Treowen 7 4 1 2 16:10 13
4 Pontypridd United 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 8:8 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 17:16 11
7 Caerau Ely 7 3 1 3 16:17 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 13:15 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 14:13 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 6:5 9
11 Caerphilly 7 2 2 3 7:12 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 9:5 6
14 Pontardawe 6 1 0 5 5:13 3
15 Llanelli 8 0 2 6 6:23 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 2:15 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)