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Lok. Zagreb vs HNK Gorica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Maric M.
Assist: Pajac M.
40' Event
Kavelj A.
Own Goal
45'
Katic I.

AI Match Summary

The HNL game between Lok. Zagreb and HNK Gorica finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lok. Zagreb.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Lok. Zagreb
35%
Draws
45%
HNK Gorica
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: HNK Gorica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • HNK Gorica haven't matched Lok. Zagreb's recent run of results.
  • HNK Gorica are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Lok. Zagreb Clean Sheet 18%
HNK Gorica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lok. Zagreb HNK Gorica
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.43 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
3:1
Apr 17, 2026 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Lok. Zagreb
0:2
Feb 6, 2026 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
3:0
Nov 3, 2025 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Lok. Zagreb
4:1
Aug 16, 2025 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lok. Zagreb Compare

Top Goalscorer Maric M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Djurkovic N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

HNK Gorica Compare

Top Goalscorer Bogojevic B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lok. Zagreb 28 / 100
HNK Gorica 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lok. Zagreb HNK Gorica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HNK Gorica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Lok. Zagreb scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: HNK Gorica conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Lok. Zagreb stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lok. Zagreb VS HNK Gorica
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lok. Zagreb

(Home)
20 Sept
Din. Zagreb
3 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
12 Sept
Lok. Zagreb
1 : 1
Rijeka
09 Sept
Tomislav DA
0 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
06 Sept
Slaven Belupo
2 : 1
Lok. Zagreb
31 Aug
Hajduk Split
2 : 0
Lok. Zagreb
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HNK Gorica

(Away)
02 Oct
HNK Gorica
3 : 3
Bravo
28 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
HNK Gorica
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
14 Sept
HNK Gorica
2 : 2
Varazdin
09 Sept
Uskok Klis
1 : 3
HNK Gorica
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5:12 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 10:24 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)