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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Ustrem Donchevo

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lokomotiv Ruse in this Third League - North-East 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lokomotiv Ruse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Lokomotiv Ruse
15%
Draws
21%
Ustrem Donchevo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lokomotiv Ruse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

21% / Low Confidence
  • Ustrem Donchevo have won more games recently than Lokomotiv Ruse.
  • Win probability leans Ustrem Donchevo's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Third League - North-East 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Lokomotiv Ruse Clean Sheet 16%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lokomotiv Ruse Ustrem Donchevo
Matches Played 29 38
Wins 3 15
Draws 6 6
Losses 20 17
Goals Scored 0.93 1.97
Goals Conceded 2.66 2.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2024 Third League - North-East
Lokomotiv Ruse vs Ustrem Donchevo
2:1
Oct 15, 2023 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Lokomotiv Ruse
2:1
Mar 19, 2023 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Lokomotiv Ruse
1:0
Sep 11, 2022 Third League - North-East
Lokomotiv Ruse vs Ustrem Donchevo
2:2
Apr 9, 2022 Third League - North-East
Lokomotiv Ruse vs Ustrem Donchevo
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lokomotiv Ruse 15 / 100
Ustrem Donchevo 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lokomotiv Ruse Ustrem Donchevo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ustrem Donchevo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ustrem Donchevo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 38 matches.

Lokomotiv Ruse's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Away concern: Ustrem Donchevo has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Ustrem Donchevo
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 2
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lokomotiv Ruse

(Home)
01 Jun
Kubrat
2 : 1
Lokomotiv Ruse
26 May
Lokomotiv Ruse
0 : 4
Septemvri Tervel
18 May
Chernolomets
6 : 2
Lokomotiv Ruse
01 May
Fratria
5 : 1
Lokomotiv Ruse
27 Apr
Lokomotiv Ruse
2 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 6

Ustrem Donchevo

(Away)
03 Oct
Devnya 2005
2 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1
Septemvri Tervel
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2
Ustrem Donchevo
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4
Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ludogorets III 26 19 4 3 69:16 61
2 Fratria 26 19 4 3 71:20 61
3 Septemvri Tervel 26 18 4 4 52:19 58
4 Cherno More II 26 16 8 2 49:17 56
5 Chernolomets 26 17 2 7 54:31 53
6 Spartak Varna II 26 16 2 8 66:27 50
7 Benkovski 26 11 2 13 48:45 35
8 Dorostol 26 10 4 12 36:50 34
9 FK Riltzi 26 9 6 11 40:45 33
10 Ustrem Donchevo 26 7 4 15 36:58 25
11 Svetkavitsa 26 4 7 15 26:54 19
12 Dunav Ruse II 26 4 4 18 26:64 16
13 Lokomotiv Ruse 26 2 5 19 22:73 11
14 Kubrat 26 2 0 24 10:86 6
15 Shumen 2007 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Sportist Toshevo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Vtora liga 2024/2025 (Main)