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Lokomotive Leipzig vs Erfurt - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Nordost
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Adetula A.
52' Event
Schwarz T.
57' Event
Ziane D.

AI Match Summary

The Regionalliga Nordost game between Lokomotive Leipzig and Erfurt finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erfurt.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Lokomotive Leipzig
35%
Draws
45%
Erfurt
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Erfurt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Erfurt come out ahead of Lokomotive Leipzig on wins alone.
  • Erfurt are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Regionalliga Nordost form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Lokomotive Leipzig Clean Sheet 10%
Erfurt Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lokomotive Leipzig Erfurt
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 12 17
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 4
Goals Scored 1.7 2.82
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Regionalliga Nordost
Lokomotive Leipzig vs Erfurt
3:4
Apr 4, 2026 Regionalliga Nordost
Lokomotive Leipzig vs Erfurt
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Lokomotive Leipzig
0:2
May 18, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Lokomotive Leipzig
2:4
Dec 1, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Lokomotive Leipzig vs Erfurt
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lokomotive Leipzig Compare

Top Goalscorer Adetula A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ziane D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Erfurt Compare

Top Goalscorer Schwarz T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Forkel D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lokomotive Leipzig 10 / 100
Erfurt 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lokomotive Leipzig Erfurt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erfurt Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lokomotive Leipzig scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Erfurt's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Lokomotive Leipzig remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lokomotive Leipzig VS Erfurt
1.75 Goals Scored 3.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lokomotive Leipzig

(Home)
26 Sept
Lokomotive Leipzig
3 : 4
Erfurt
20 Sept
Jena
1 : 2
Lokomotive Leipzig
16 Sept
Lokomotive Leipzig
2 : 2
BFC Dynamo
13 Sept
Greifswalder FC
3 : 3
Lokomotive Leipzig
30 Aug
Lokomotive Leipzig
1 : 2
Aue
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Erfurt

(Away)
26 Sept
Lokomotive Leipzig
3 : 4
Erfurt
19 Sept
Erfurt
2 : 2
Aue
15 Sept
Hertha Berlin II
1 : 2
Erfurt
11 Sept
Erfurt
5 : 0
Rsv Eintracht
29 Aug
Erfurt
1 : 1
BFC Preussen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Erfurt 11 8 3 0 36:11 27
2 Chemnitzer 11 8 2 1 25:5 26
3 Hallescher 11 6 4 1 18:9 22
4 BFC Dynamo 11 6 3 2 20:12 21
5 Altglienicke 11 6 3 2 20:14 21
6 Aue 11 6 3 2 20:16 21
7 Jena 11 6 1 4 19:10 19
8 Greifswalder FC 11 5 4 2 23:16 19
9 Lokomotive Leipzig 11 4 3 4 23:23 15
10 Zwickau 11 4 3 4 13:17 15
11 Magdeburg II 11 4 1 6 20:23 13
12 Babelsberg 11 3 3 5 14:17 12
13 BFC Preussen 11 2 4 5 14:17 10
14 Chemie Leipzig 11 2 3 6 12:17 9
15 Hertha Berlin II 11 2 3 6 9:21 9
16 Rsv Eintracht 11 1 3 7 13:29 6
17 SV Tasmania Berlin 11 1 2 8 13:36 5
18 Luckenwalde 11 1 0 10 9:28 3
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)