Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lommel SK vs Dender

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Soevereinstadion, Lommel
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Lopez L.
34' Event
Acquah D.
Assist: Berte M.
40'
De Fougerolles L.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-2, with Lommel SK advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Lommel SK
44%
Draws
20%
Dender
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Lommel SK carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Lommel SK have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lommel SK, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Lommel SK Clean Sheet 20%
Dender Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lommel SK Dender
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 18 6
Draws 5 6
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 2.38 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs Lommel SK
0:0
May 17, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Lommel SK vs Dender
3:2
Feb 3, 2024 Challenger Pro League
Lommel SK vs Dender
2:2
Sep 16, 2023 Challenger Pro League
Dender vs Lommel SK
3:1
May 6, 2023 Challenger Pro League
Dender vs Lommel SK
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lommel SK Compare

Top Goalscorer Seuntjens R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vancsa Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Dender Compare

Top Goalscorer Acquah D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Berte M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lommel SK 36 / 100
Dender 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lommel SK Dender

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lommel SK found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Dender let in goals in 81% of their last 26 matches.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Lommel SK remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lommel SK VS Dender
2.38 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lommel SK

(Home)
24 Jul
Lommel SK
0 : 4
Den Haag
18 Jul
Lommel SK
2 : 1
G.A. Eagles
15 Jul
Leuven
5 : 1
Lommel SK
11 Jul
Cercle Brugge
1 : 1
Lommel SK
07 Jul
Kryvbas
2 : 4
Lommel SK
Page 1 of 6

Dender

(Away)
23 May
Dender
0 : 0
Lommel SK
17 May
Lommel SK
3 : 2
Dender
09 May
Waregem
2 : 1
Dender
03 May
Dender
2 : 1
RAAL La Louviere
24 Apr
Cercle Brugge
2 : 1
Dender
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Dender-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Beerschot VA4
Patro Eisden3
RFC Liege1
Lommel SK5
Semi-finals
Dender-
TBD-
Beerschot VA2
Lommel SK6
Final
Dender2
Lommel SK3