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Lommel SK vs Dender

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Soevereinstadion, Lommel
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Lopez L.
34' Event
Acquah D.
Assist: Berte M.
40'
De Fougerolles L.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-2, with Lommel SK advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Lommel SK
15%
Draws
57%
Dender
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dender

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Lommel SK carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Dender taking it.
  • Lommel SK have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lommel SK, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Lommel SK Clean Sheet 20%
Dender Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lommel SK Dender
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 13 7
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.52 0.89
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs Lommel SK
0:0
May 17, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Lommel SK vs Dender
3:2
Feb 3, 2024 Challenger Pro League
Lommel SK vs Dender
2:2
Sep 16, 2023 Challenger Pro League
Dender vs Lommel SK
3:1
May 6, 2023 Challenger Pro League
Dender vs Lommel SK
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lommel SK Compare

Top Goalscorer Seuntjens R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vancsa Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Dender Compare

Top Goalscorer Acquah D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Berte M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lommel SK 20 / 100
Dender 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lommel SK Dender

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dender Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Lommel SK scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Dender has conceded goals in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Solid form: Lommel SK remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lommel SK VS Dender
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lommel SK

(Home)
12 Sept
Royale Union SG
5 : 0
Lommel SK
04 Sept
Lommel SK
0 : 1
Club Brugge
29 Aug
Cercle Brugge
0 : 1
Lommel SK
23 Aug
Lommel SK
4 : 0
Westerlo
16 Aug
Lommel SK
0 : 1
Charleroi
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Dender

(Away)
11 Sept
Gent U23
0 : 1
Dender
04 Sept
Dender
2 : 0
RFC Seraing
29 Aug
RFC Liege
1 : 2
Dender
22 Aug
Dender
2 : 0
Beerschot VA
14 Aug
Hasselt
1 : 0
Dender
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Dender -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Beerschot VA 4
Patro Eisden 3
RFC Liege 1
Lommel SK 5
Semi-finals
Dender -
TBD -
Beerschot VA 2
Lommel SK 6
Final
Dender 2
Lommel SK 3