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Stadium Background

Los Chankas vs Moquegua

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Municipal Los Chankas
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Liga 1 encounter between Los Chankas and Moquegua promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Los Chankas averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in recent matches. Moquegua shows a form average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Los Chankas, 0 wins for Moquegua, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 17.05.26 ended in a 1:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.13 for Los Chankas and 1.25 for Moquegua, suggesting the primary value lies in the Los Chankas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Los Chankas
17%
Draws
30%
Moquegua
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Los Chankas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Los Chankas picked up more points recently compared to Moquegua.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Los Chankas Clean Sheet 19%
Moquegua Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Los Chankas Moquegua
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.36 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

17.05.26 Liga 1
Los Chankas vs Moquegua
1:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Los Chankas

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Moquegua

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Los Chankas Compare

Top Goalscorer Takeuchi O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Moquegua Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Los Chankas 52 / 100
Moquegua 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Los Chankas Moquegua

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Los Chankas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Los Chankas & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.7%
2.22
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Los Chankas is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Los Chankas 58%
Moquegua 24%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Moquegua will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Los Chankas's attacks.

Los Chankas 50%
Moquegua 32%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Los Chankas to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Los Chankas 53%
Moquegua 30%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Los Chankas vary their attacking width.

Los Chankas 56%
Moquegua 29%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Moquegua, allowing Los Chankas's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Los Chankas 48%
Moquegua 33%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Los Chankas, while Moquegua takes risks to salvage a result.

Los Chankas 61%
Moquegua 35%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Los Chankas attacking → ← attacking Moquegua

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Los Chankas have found the net in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Moquegua have conceded at least one goal in 80% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.00 goals per match.

Los Chankas remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Moquegua suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 42
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016