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Louletano vs Moncarapachense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Chimaraoke J.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 game between Louletano and Moncarapachense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Louletano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Louletano
15%
Draws
31%
Moncarapachense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Louletano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Moncarapachense haven't matched Louletano's recent run of results.
  • Louletano are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Louletano Clean Sheet 68%
Moncarapachense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Louletano Moncarapachense
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 18 9
Draws 8 10
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.48 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.82 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.15 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Louletano vs Moncarapachense
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs Louletano
0:0
Jan 19, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs Louletano
1:0
Sep 22, 2024 Taça de Portugal
Moncarapachense vs Louletano
2:1
Aug 27, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Louletano vs Moncarapachense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Louletano Compare

Top Goalscorer Chimaraoke J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Moncarapachense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Louletano 51 / 100
Moncarapachense 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Louletano Moncarapachense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Louletano's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Moncarapachense let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Louletano has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Louletano VS Moncarapachense
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.67
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Louletano

(Home)
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2
Louletano
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Castrense
0 : 1
Louletano
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
Page 1 of 7

Moncarapachense

(Away)
18 Apr
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0
Moncarapachense
12 Apr
Moncarapachense
0 : 1
Juv. Evora
04 Apr
Louletano
1 : 0
Moncarapachense
22 Mar
Moncarapachense
2 : 0
Sintrense
15 Mar
Portimonense B
0 : 3
Moncarapachense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)