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Louletano vs Vitoria Sernache - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026
Louletano Logo

Louletano

1 - 2
FT
Vitoria Sernache Logo

Vitoria Sernache

Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
dos Santos B.
(Penalty)
63' Event
Santos M.
84' Event
Sousa T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 game between Louletano and Vitoria Sernache finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vitoria Sernache.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Louletano
15%
Draws
28%
Vitoria Sernache
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Louletano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Louletano come out ahead of Vitoria Sernache on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Louletano's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Louletano Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Louletano Vitoria Sernache
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 7 9
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.48 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.83 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Vitoria Sernache vs Louletano
1:1
May 10, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Louletano vs Vitoria Sernache
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Louletano Compare

Top Goalscorer Sousa T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Vitoria Sernache Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Louletano 77 / 100
Vitoria Sernache 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Louletano Vitoria Sernache

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Louletano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Louletano scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Louletano has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Vitoria Sernache registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Louletano VS Vitoria Sernache
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Louletano

(Home)
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2
Louletano
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Castrense
0 : 1
Louletano
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
Page 1 of 6

Vitoria Sernache

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leca 6 4 1 1 12:8 13
2 SC Vianense 6 3 0 3 11:9 9
3 GD Braganca 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
4 Rebordosa 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leca 6 4 1 1 12:8 13
2 SC Vianense 6 3 0 3 11:9 9
3 GD Braganca 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
4 Rebordosa 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leca 6 4 1 1 12:8 13
2 SC Vianense 6 3 0 3 11:9 9
3 GD Braganca 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
4 Rebordosa 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leca 6 4 1 1 12:8 13
2 SC Vianense 6 3 0 3 11:9 9
3 GD Braganca 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
4 Rebordosa 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leca 6 4 1 1 12:8 13
2 SC Vianense 6 3 0 3 11:9 9
3 GD Braganca 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
4 Rebordosa 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
2 Louletano 6 2 3 1 8:7 9
3 Oliveira Hospital 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
4 Malveira 6 0 3 3 3:9 3
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
2 Louletano 6 2 3 1 8:7 9
3 Oliveira Hospital 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
4 Malveira 6 0 3 3 3:9 3
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
2 Louletano 6 2 3 1 8:7 9
3 Oliveira Hospital 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
4 Malveira 6 0 3 3 3:9 3
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
2 Louletano 6 2 3 1 8:7 9
3 Oliveira Hospital 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
4 Malveira 6 0 3 3 3:9 3
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
2 Louletano 6 2 3 1 8:7 9
3 Oliveira Hospital 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
4 Malveira 6 0 3 3 3:9 3
Promotion - Liga 3 (Main)