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Lucchese vs Ternana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E Porta Elisa, Lucca
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Liurni L.
25' Event
Liurni L.
51' Event
Cadili A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Lucchese
30%
Draws
37%
Ternana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ternana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Ternana haven't matched Lucchese's recent run of results.
  • Lucchese are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Lucchese Clean Sheet 13%
Ternana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lucchese Ternana
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 10
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.72 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Lucchese vs Ternana
2:2
Mar 30, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Lucchese vs Ternana
4:1
Nov 17, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Lucchese
5:0
Jan 16, 2011 Lega Pro C1/B
Ternana vs Lucchese
0:1
Sep 5, 2010 Lega Pro C1/B
Lucchese vs Ternana
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lucchese Compare

Top Goalscorer Cadili A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Labriola V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Ternana Compare

Top Goalscorer Liurni L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lucchese 35 / 100
Ternana 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lucchese Ternana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lucchese scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Ternana has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Lucchese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lucchese VS Ternana
2.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lucchese

(Home)
18 Oct
Sasso Marconi
2 : 0
Lucchese
11 Oct
Lucchese
2 : 2
Ternana
07 Oct
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 2
Lucchese
04 Oct
Grassina
3 : 6
Lucchese
27 Sept
Lucchese
3 : 2
Siena
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Ternana

(Away)
21 Oct
Ternana
5 : 1
Recanatese
18 Oct
Ternana
2 : 1
Siena
11 Oct
Lucchese
2 : 2
Ternana
04 Oct
Ternana
4 : 1
Montevarchi
27 Sept
Scandicci
0 : 0
Ternana
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Prato 8 5 3 0 12:5 18
2 Follonica Gavorrano 8 4 4 0 11:5 16
3 Seravezza Pozzi 8 4 2 2 15:5 14
4 Lucchese 8 4 2 2 18:15 14
5 Siena 8 4 1 3 15:10 13
6 Tau 8 4 1 3 11:14 13
7 Ternana 8 3 3 2 13:8 12
8 Scandicci 8 3 3 2 13:9 12
9 Terranuova Traiana 8 3 3 2 13:10 12
10 Flaminia 8 3 3 2 10:11 12
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 8 3 2 3 9:10 11
12 Montevarchi 8 3 1 4 12:12 10
13 Mezzolara 8 1 6 1 7:9 9
14 Rondinella 8 2 3 3 6:10 9
15 Sasso Marconi 8 2 2 4 10:13 8
16 Grassina 8 1 3 4 8:14 6
17 SCD Progresso 8 1 0 7 4:17 3
18 Ghiviborgo 8 0 2 6 6:16 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)