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Lugazi vs Police - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Lugazi FC Stadium, Najjembe
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Match Events

69' Event
Matovu R.
89' Event
Jemba R.

AI Match Summary

Police in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Police.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lugazi
15%
Draws
46%
Police
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Police

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Police have won more games recently than Lugazi.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Lugazi Clean Sheet 25%
Police Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugazi Police
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.63 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Premier League
Lugazi vs Police
0:2
Feb 12, 2026 Premier League
Police vs Lugazi
2:1
Dec 10, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Police
1:1
Feb 12, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Police
1:0
Nov 20, 2024 Premier League
Police vs Lugazi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugazi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Matovu R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jemba R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugazi 33 / 100
Police 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugazi Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Police Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Police let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Lugazi found the back of the net in 40% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Lugazi remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lugazi VS Police
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugazi

(Home)
07 Oct
Maroons
3 : 0
Lugazi
16 Sept
Lugazi
0 : 2
Police
09 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
0 : 1
Lugazi
01 Sept
NEC FC
3 : 1
Lugazi
29 Aug
Lugazi
2 : 1
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
09 Oct
Entebbe UPPC
3 : 0
Police
16 Sept
Lugazi
0 : 2
Police
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
02 Sept
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Police
29 Aug
Police
1 : 0
Mbarara City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 BUL 4 4 0 0 11:3 12
2 NEC FC 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Villa 5 3 2 0 8:2 11
4 Entebbe UPPC 5 3 1 1 6:2 10
5 Blacks Power 5 3 0 2 5:7 9
6 Police 5 2 1 2 3:4 7
7 Kampala City 5 2 1 2 2:4 7
8 Vipers 3 2 0 1 7:1 6
9 Maroons 5 2 0 3 8:6 6
10 Lugazi 5 2 0 3 4:9 6
11 Kitara 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
12 Express FC 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
13 UPDF FC 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
14 Uganda Revenue 4 1 0 3 3:7 3
15 Ntugasaze 5 1 0 4 3:11 3
16 Mbarara City 4 0 2 2 0:2 2
17 Kataka 4 0 2 2 2:6 2
18 Kigezi HomeBoyz 4 0 1 3 1:6 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2027/2028 (Main)