Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lugazi vs Police - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Lugazi FC Stadium, Najjembe
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Kalanzi A.
70' Event
Mugume E.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Lugazi
20%
Draws
46%
Police
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Police

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Lugazi haven't matched Police's recent run of results.
  • Police are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Lugazi Clean Sheet 25%
Police Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugazi Police
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 6 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 0.63 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.33 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Premier League
Lugazi vs Police
0:2
Feb 12, 2026 Premier League
Police vs Lugazi
2:1
Dec 10, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Police
1:1
Feb 12, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Police
1:0
Nov 20, 2024 Premier League
Police vs Lugazi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugazi Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalanzi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Mugume E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugazi 21 / 100
Police 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugazi Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Police Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Police has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Lugazi scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

Recent resilience: Lugazi stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lugazi VS Police
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugazi

(Home)
07 Oct
Maroons
3 : 0
Lugazi
16 Sept
Lugazi
0 : 2
Police
09 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
0 : 1
Lugazi
01 Sept
NEC FC
3 : 1
Lugazi
29 Aug
Lugazi
2 : 1
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
16 Sept
Lugazi
0 : 2
Police
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
02 Sept
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Police
29 Aug
Police
1 : 0
Mbarara City
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)