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Lugo B vs Paiosaco

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Maceira J.
85' Event
Gordo F.
Own Goal
87' Event
Lansade J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 game between Lugo B and Paiosaco finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugo B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Lugo B
30%
Draws
39%
Paiosaco
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Paiosaco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Paiosaco haven't matched Lugo B's recent run of results.
  • Lugo B are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Lugo B Clean Sheet 68%
Paiosaco Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugo B Paiosaco
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 9
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.22 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Lugo B
1:0
Jan 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Paiosaco
3:0
Feb 28, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Lugo B
0:1
Nov 29, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo B vs Paiosaco
1:0
May 17, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Lugo B
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugo B Compare

Top Goalscorer Maceira J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lansade J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Paiosaco Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugo B 95 / 100
Paiosaco 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugo B Paiosaco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugo B found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

Paiosaco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Lugo B went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Lugo B VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugo B

(Home)
10 May
Racing Club Villalbes
2 : 1
Lugo B
03 May
Lugo B
5 : 1
Barbadas-Bentraces
26 Apr
Alondras
0 : 4
Lugo B
19 Apr
Viveiro
0 : 0
Lugo B
11 Apr
Lugo B
0 : 0
Gran Pena
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Paiosaco

(Away)
12 May
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Lugo B
05 May
UD Ourense
3 : 0
Paiosaco
01 May
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 0
Paiosaco
27 Apr
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Pontevedra B
21 Apr
Arzua
1 : 2
Paiosaco
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 34 21 10 3 49:19 73
2 Gran Pena 34 15 16 3 48:30 61
3 Arosa SC 34 15 13 6 39:23 58
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 47:34 55
5 Sarriana 34 14 8 12 43:35 50
6 Atletico Arteixo 34 11 14 9 46:39 47
7 Somozas 34 12 9 13 43:39 45
8 Estradense 34 11 12 11 31:32 45
9 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 14 10 33:34 44
10 Viveiro 34 12 8 14 39:42 44
11 Alondras 34 10 14 10 37:36 44
12 Silva SD 34 11 10 13 35:35 43
13 Lugo B 34 11 10 13 32:34 43
14 Betanzos CF 34 10 13 11 35:31 43
15 Rapido de Bouzas 34 11 9 14 38:40 42
16 Paiosaco 34 10 11 13 30:42 41
17 Pontevedra B 34 7 5 22 27:65 26
18 Arzua 34 4 6 24 24:66 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Play Offs)