Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lupa Frascati vs Casertana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Ferrari N.

AI Match Summary

Casertana in this Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Casertana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Lupa Frascati
30%
Draws
41%
Casertana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Casertana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Lupa Frascati haven't matched Casertana's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Lupa Frascati Clean Sheet 19%
Casertana Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lupa Frascati Casertana
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 11 16
Draws 10 9
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.3 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Lupa Frascati vs Casertana
0:1
Oct 16, 2022 Serie D - Group G
Casertana vs Lupa Frascati
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lupa Frascati Compare

Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Casertana Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrari N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lupa Frascati 31 / 100
Casertana 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lupa Frascati Casertana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lupa Frascati Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lupa Frascati's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Casertana conceded in 66% of 35 recent games.

Lupa Frascati went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

- VS Casertana
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lupa Frascati

(Home)
14 May
Paganese
3 : 2
Lupa Frascati
07 May
Lupa Frascati
3 : 1
Cassino
30 Apr
Sorrento
2 : 1
Lupa Frascati
23 Apr
Lupa Frascati
1 : 1
Paganese
16 Apr
Sarrabus Ogliastra
0 : 0
Lupa Frascati
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Casertana

(Away)
03 Oct
Cavese
2 : 0
Casertana
27 Sept
Casertana
1 : 2
Catania
19 Sept
Audace Cerignola
0 : 0
Casertana
15 Sept
Casertana
1 : 0
Altamura
12 Sept
Inter U23
2 : 3
Casertana
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sorrento 34 21 7 6 53:28 70
2 Paganese 34 19 11 4 56:29 68
3 Casertana 34 17 7 10 57:40 58
4 Arzachena 34 17 6 11 51:40 57
5 Lupa Frascati 34 13 11 10 44:29 50
6 Palmese 1914 34 13 10 11 50:44 49
7 Cassino 34 13 8 13 42:45 47
8 Real Monterotondo 34 12 9 13 51:55 45
9 Sarrabus Ogliastra 34 12 7 15 51:54 43
10 Tivoli Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:39 41
11 Vis Artena 34 9 14 11 24:28 41
12 Portici 1906 34 9 13 12 45:49 40
13 Angri 34 10 9 15 39:51 39
14 Atletico Uri 34 10 9 15 45:62 39
15 Ilvamaddalena 34 8 14 12 30:39 38
16 Pomezia 34 8 11 15 40:58 35
17 SS Nola 1925 34 8 11 15 44:55 35
18 Aprilia 34 8 10 16 34:47 34
Promotion - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Out)