Sport Picks
Match Events
12'
12'
Persano M.
43'
43'
D'Agostino S.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Paganese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Lupa Frascati haven't matched Paganese's recent run of results.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on Paganese taking it.
- Regular Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Paganese have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Lupa Frascati Clean Sheet 22%
Paganese Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lupa Frascati | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 40 |
| Wins | 11 | 23 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.3 | 1.35 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 0.95 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.29 | 1.05 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 14, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Lupa Frascati
3:2
Apr 23, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Lupa Frascati vs Paganese
1:1
Dec 11, 2022 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Lupa Frascati
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lupa Frascati Compare
Top Goalscorer Persano M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65
Paganese Compare
Top Goalscorer D'Agostino S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lupa Frascati 29 / 100
Paganese 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lupa Frascati Paganese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Paganese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lupa Frascati scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Games between these two average 2.67 goals.
Lupa Frascati has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Paganese let in goals in 53% of their last 40 matches.
Scoring Trends
- VS Paganese
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Lupa Frascati
(Home) 14 May
Paganese
3 : 2 Lupa Frascati
07 May
Lupa Frascati
3 : 1 Cassino
30 Apr
Sorrento
2 : 1 Lupa Frascati
23 Apr
Lupa Frascati
1 : 1 Paganese
16 Apr
Sarrabus Ogliastra
0 : 0 Lupa Frascati
Page 1 of 6
07 May
Lupa Frascati
3 : 1 Cassino
23 Apr
Lupa Frascati
1 : 1 Paganese
06 Apr
Lupa Frascati
0 : 0 Ilvamaddalena
19 Mar
Lupa Frascati
2 : 0 Palmese 1914
05 Mar
Lupa Frascati
1 : 2 Angri
Page 1 of 3
Paganese
(Away) 27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3 Gelbison
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6 Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0 Afragolese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3 Paganese
06 Sept
Paganese
2 : 1 Unipomezia
Page 1 of 8
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6 Paganese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3 Paganese
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1 Paganese
10 May
Citta di Fasano
1 : 2 Paganese
03 May
Citta di Fasano
6 : 0 Paganese
Page 1 of 5
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sorrento | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 53:28 | 70 |
| 2 | Paganese | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 56:29 | 68 |
| 3 | Casertana | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 57:40 | 58 |
| 4 | Arzachena | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 51:40 | 57 |
| 5 | Lupa Frascati | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 44:29 | 50 |
| 6 | Palmese 1914 | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 50:44 | 49 |
| 7 | Cassino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42:45 | 47 |
| 8 | Real Monterotondo | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 51:55 | 45 |
| 9 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51:54 | 43 |
| 10 | Tivoli Calcio | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 36:39 | 41 |
| 11 | Vis Artena | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 24:28 | 41 |
| 12 | Portici 1906 | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 45:49 | 40 |
| 13 | Angri | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39:51 | 39 |
| 14 | Atletico Uri | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 45:62 | 39 |
| 15 | Ilvamaddalena | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 30:39 | 38 |
| 16 | Pomezia | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 40:58 | 35 |
| 17 | SS Nola 1925 | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 44:55 | 35 |
| 18 | Aprilia | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34:47 | 34 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Out)
