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Lusitania FC vs Arouca

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arouca in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arouca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Lusitania FC
30%
Draws
19%
Arouca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lusitania FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Arouca lately — more wins on the board than Lusitania FC.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Lusitania FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Lusitania FC Clean Sheet 18%
Arouca Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusitania FC Arouca
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 13
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Lusitania FC vs Arouca
0:2
Jul 23, 2025 Club Friendly
Arouca vs Lusitania FC
2:3
Feb 2, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Arouca vs Lusitania FC
1:0
Sep 1, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Lusitania FC vs Arouca
4:1
Jul 27, 2019 Club Friendly
Arouca vs Lusitania FC
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusitania FC 67 / 100
Arouca 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusitania FC Arouca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lusitania FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitania FC has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Lusitania FC scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Arouca conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Lusitania FC VS Arouca
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lusitania FC

(Home)
20 Sept
FC Madalena
1 : 3
Lusitania FC
14 Sept
Sporting CP B
1 : 2
Lusitania FC
07 Sept
Lusitania FC
2 : 1
AFS
29 Aug
Academica
0 : 2
Lusitania FC
22 Aug
Lusitania FC
2 : 2
Torreense
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Arouca

(Away)
19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2
Arouca
13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2
Santa Clara
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0
Arouca
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1
Maritimo
23 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0
Arouca
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