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Lusitano FCV vs Agueda

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021 game between Lusitano FCV and Agueda finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lusitano FCV.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Lusitano FCV
30%
Draws
34%
Agueda
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lusitano FCV

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Agueda haven't matched Lusitano FCV's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lusitano FCV's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Lusitano FCV Clean Sheet 20%
Agueda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusitano FCV Agueda
Matches Played 26 24
Wins 5 4
Draws 4 5
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 1.25 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lusitano FCV vs Agueda
2:1
Nov 7, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Agueda vs Lusitano FCV
1:0
Jan 27, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Agueda vs Lusitano FCV
2:2
Aug 19, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Lusitano FCV vs Agueda
0:1
Mar 11, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Agueda vs Lusitano FCV
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusitano FCV 36 / 100
Agueda 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusitano FCV Agueda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Agueda has conceded goals in 79% of their last 24 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Away concern: Agueda has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Lusitano FCV's goal record stands at 42% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Lusitano FCV VS Agueda
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lusitano FCV

(Home)
10 Sept
Lusitano FCV
0 : 2
Tocha
11 Sept
Lusitano FCV
0 : 3
Sanjoanense
10 Apr
SC Espinho
2 : 1
Lusitano FCV
03 Apr
Lusitano FCV
0 : 3
Castro Daire
14 Mar
Beira Mar
2 : 1
Lusitano FCV
Page 1 of 6

Agueda

(Away)
01 Oct
Agueda
0 : 1
Pevidem
10 Apr
Sanjoanense
1 : 0
Agueda
03 Apr
Agueda
0 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
21 Mar
Agueda
0 : 2
Castro Daire
12 Mar
Agueda
0 : 0
Canelas 2010
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Anadia22135439:1544
2Canelas 201022125528:1341
3Lusitania FC22116538:2639
4Sao Joao de Ver22108430:1438
5Sanjoanense22812226:1336
6Castro Daire22105723:2435
7Valadares Gaia FC22103936:2733
8SC Espinho2294933:2231
9Beira Mar2294930:2331
10Agueda22451317:2817
11Lusitano FCV22441417:3416
12Vila Cortez2211208:864
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2020/2021 (Qualification)