Sport Picks
Match Events
7'
7'
Yates J.
(Penalty)
22'
22'
Mabete F.
37'
37'
Wright W.
Assist: Olakigbe M.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-2, with Swindon advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Swindon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Luton carry the better recent record into this one.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Luton have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Swindon, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Luton Clean Sheet 13%
Swindon Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Luton | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 16 | 9 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 1.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 13, 2026 EFL Trophy
Luton vs Swindon
1:2
Dec 26, 2017 League Two
Swindon vs Luton
0:5
Sep 9, 2017 League Two
Luton vs Swindon
0:3
Dec 6, 2016 EFL Trophy
Swindon vs Luton
2:3
Aug 12, 2014 EFL Cup
Luton vs Swindon
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Luton Compare
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Swindon Compare
Top Goalscorer Wright W.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mabete F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Luton 30 / 100
Swindon 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Luton Swindon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Luton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Luton scored in 90% of their last 29 games.
Swindon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.
Games between these two average 3.80 goals.
Difficult form: Swindon registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Luton VS Swindon
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Luton
(Home) 19 Sept
Luton
0 : 1 Bradford City
10 Sept
Stevenage
2 : 1 Luton
05 Sept
Luton
1 : 1 Leyton Orient
02 Sept
Luton
2 : 0 Stockport County
30 Aug
Mansfield
5 : 2 Luton
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Luton
0 : 1 Bradford City
05 Sept
Luton
1 : 1 Leyton Orient
02 Sept
Luton
2 : 0 Stockport County
22 Aug
Luton
2 : 2 Notts County
02 Aug
Luton
0 : 1 G.A. Eagles
Page 1 of 3
Swindon
(Away) 19 Sept
Salford
1 : 0 Swindon
15 Sept
Swindon
1 : 2 Crystal Palace U21
12 Sept
York City
4 : 0 Swindon
05 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Colchester
01 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Port Vale
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Salford
1 : 0 Swindon
12 Sept
York City
4 : 0 Swindon
29 Aug
Oldham
3 : 0 Swindon
15 Aug
Northampton
0 : 0 Swindon
08 Aug
Cardiff
3 : 2 Swindon
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City 0
Huddersfield 2
Salford 2
Rotherham 7
Doncaster 5
Chesterfield 1
Tranmere 0
Fleetwood Town 3
Bolton 3
Bradford City 0
Port Vale 5
Barnsley 0
Crewe 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 4
Blackpool 2
Luton 4
Exeter 0
Swindon 1
Peterborough 0
Bristol Rovers 3
Cambridge Utd 2
Leyton Orient 0
Plymouth 1
Cardiff 1
AFC Wimbledon 5
Colchester 0
West Ham U21 1
Northampton 2
Wycombe 0
Stevenage 1
Walsall 2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield 3
Rotherham 0
Doncaster 3
Fleetwood Town 1
Bolton 0
Port Vale 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 1
Luton 1
Swindon 2
Bristol Rovers 3
Plymouth 4
AFC Wimbledon 4
West Ham U21 2
Northampton 4
Walsall 2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield 1
Doncaster 2
Port Vale 0
Stockport County 4
Luton 2
Plymouth 1
AFC Wimbledon 1
Northampton 2
Semi-finals
Doncaster 0
Stockport County 1
Luton 2
Northampton 1
Final
Stockport County 1
Luton 3
