Sport Picks

Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Stade de Luxembourg

Belarus

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Luxembourg play Belarus in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Luxembourg averaged 0.77 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Belarus averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.54 conceded. In past meetings, Luxembourg won 1, Belarus won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 15, 2024 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Luxembourg and 1.25 for Belarus. This points to a Belarus double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Luxembourg

24%

Draws

45%

Belarus

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Belarus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Luxembourg picked up more points recently compared to Belarus.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 62%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Luxembourg Clean Sheet 19%

Belarus Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 56%

Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Luxembourg	Belarus
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	8	9
Draws	5	10
Losses	17	9
Goals Scored	0.77	1.18
Goals Conceded	1.57	1.54
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2024 UEFA Nations League

Belarus vs Luxembourg

Possession: 59% - 60% Cards: 3 - 1

1:1

Sep 8, 2024 UEFA Nations League

Luxembourg vs Belarus

Possession: 53% - 46% Cards: 2 - 0

0:1

Nov 15, 2018 UEFA Nations League

Luxembourg vs Belarus

Possession: 52% - 49% Cards: 2 - 0

0:2

Oct 12, 2018 UEFA Nations League

Belarus vs Luxembourg

Possession: 48% - 47% Cards: 3 - 2

1:0

Aug 31, 2017 World Championship

Luxembourg vs Belarus

Possession: 40% - 50% Cards: 3 - 2

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luxembourg Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Belarus Compare

Top Goalscorer Gromyko V.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luxembourg 32 / 100

Belarus 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Luxembourg Belarus

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Belarus or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.9%

3.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Luxembourg attacking → ← attacking Belarus

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Luxembourg scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Belarus let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Luxembourg went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Belarus lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 37

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sweden	6	5	1	0	19:4	16
2	Slovakia	6	4	1	1	10:5	13
3	Estonia	6	1	1	4	3:9	4
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:17	1

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Romania	6	6	0	18:3	18
2	Kosovo	6	4	2	10:7	12
3	Cyprus	6	2	4	4:15	6
4	Lithuania	6	0	6	4:11	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Northern Ireland	6	3	2	1	11:3	11
2	Bulgaria	6	2	3	1	3:6	9
3	Belarus	6	1	4	1	3:4	7
4	Luxembourg	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	North Macedonia	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Armenia	6	2	1	3	8:9	7
3	Faroe Islands	6	1	3	2	5:6	6
4	Latvia	6	1	1	4	4:11	4