Sport Picks
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Europe
UEFA Nations League Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg 
Match Events
19'
19'
Balov K.
Assist: Tsenov E.
31'
31'
Rusev G.
34'
34'
Iliev A.
Assist: Rusev G.
AI Match Summary
Bulgaria in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bulgaria.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
20%
36%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Luxembourg
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Luxembourg have won more games recently than Bulgaria.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Luxembourg Clean Sheet 16%
Bulgaria Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Luxembourg | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 7 |
| Draws | 4 | 11 |
| Losses | 18 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 6, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
0:2
Sep 26, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg
1:2
Nov 15, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
0:1
Oct 12, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg
0:0
Nov 20, 2022 Friendly International
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Luxembourg Compare
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Bulgaria Compare
Top Goalscorer Balov K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Iliev A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Luxembourg 31 / 100
Bulgaria 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Luxembourg Bulgaria
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Bulgaria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.
Luxembourg scored in 40% of their last 30 games.
Games between these two average 1.20 goals.
Solid form: Luxembourg remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Luxembourg VS Bulgaria
1 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Luxembourg
(Home) 06 Oct
Luxembourg
0 : 2 Bulgaria
03 Oct
Estonia
1 : 0 Luxembourg
29 Sept
Luxembourg
0 : 3 Iceland
26 Sept
Bulgaria
1 : 2 Luxembourg
06 Jun
Albania
0 : 1 Luxembourg
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Luxembourg
0 : 2 Bulgaria
29 Sept
Luxembourg
0 : 3 Iceland
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1 Italy
31 Mar
Luxembourg
3 : 0 Malta
14 Nov
Luxembourg
0 : 2 Germany
Page 1 of 3
Bulgaria
(Away) 06 Oct
Luxembourg
0 : 2 Bulgaria
03 Oct
Iceland
3 : 0 Bulgaria
29 Sept
Bulgaria
0 : 0 Estonia
26 Sept
Bulgaria
1 : 2 Luxembourg
05 Jun
Moldova
2 : 2 Bulgaria
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Luxembourg
0 : 2 Bulgaria
03 Oct
Iceland
3 : 0 Bulgaria
05 Jun
Moldova
2 : 2 Bulgaria
30 Mar
Indonesia
0 : 1 Bulgaria
27 Mar
Solomon Islands
2 : 10 Bulgaria
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9:2 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:16 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | 10 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:6 | 1 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 2 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:1 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | 3 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
