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Luxembourg vs Iceland - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Luxembourg Logo

Luxembourg

0 - 3
FT
Iceland Logo

Iceland

Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Gudjohnsen A.
Assist: Oskarsson O.
15'
Sub
Jans L. In: Martins M.
Out: Jans L.
35'
Valdimarsson H. R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Iceland in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Iceland.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Luxembourg
20%
Draws
29%
Iceland
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Luxembourg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Iceland have won more games recently than Luxembourg.
  • 29% — that's where the model lands on Iceland taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Luxembourg Clean Sheet 25%
Iceland Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luxembourg Iceland
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 9
Draws 4 5
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 0.75 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg vs Iceland
0:3
Oct 13, 2023 Euro
Iceland vs Luxembourg
1:1
Sep 8, 2023 Euro
Luxembourg vs Iceland
3:1
Nov 14, 2009 Friendly International
Luxembourg vs Iceland
1:1
Mar 10, 1999 Friendly International
Luxembourg vs Iceland
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luxembourg Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Iceland Compare

Top Goalscorer Gudjohnsen A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Oskarsson O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luxembourg 21 / 100
Iceland 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luxembourg Iceland

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Iceland Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Iceland conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Luxembourg remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Luxembourg's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Luxembourg VS Iceland
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Luxembourg

(Home)
29 Sept
Luxembourg
0 : 3
Iceland
26 Sept
Bulgaria
1 : 2
Luxembourg
06 Jun
Albania
0 : 1
Luxembourg
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1
Italy
31 Mar
Luxembourg
3 : 0
Malta
Page 1 of 6

Iceland

(Away)
29 Sept
Luxembourg
0 : 3
Iceland
26 Sept
Iceland
1 : 1
Estonia
10 Jun
Argentina
3 : 0
Iceland
31 May
Japan
1 : 0
Iceland
31 Mar
Haiti
1 : 1
Iceland
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albania 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
2 Belarus 4 2 1 1 5:2 7
3 Finland 4 2 1 1 9:2 7
4 San Marino 4 0 0 4 1:16 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montenegro 4 3 1 0 7:4 10
2 Cyprus 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Armenia 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
4 Latvia 4 0 1 3 2:6 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Slovakia 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
2 Faroe Islands 4 0 4 0 5:5 4
3 Moldova 4 1 1 2 3:8 4
4 Kazakhstan 4 0 2 2 5:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iceland 4 2 2 0 7:1 8
2 Estonia 4 1 3 0 2:1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 Luxembourg 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)