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Luxembourg vs Italy Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Friendly International Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Esposito F.
Assist: Pisilli N.
51'
Lipani L.
66'
Sub
Bohnert F. In: Kadamani H.
Out: Bohnert F.

AI Match Summary

Italy in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Italy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Luxembourg
15%
Draws
42%
Italy
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Luxembourg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Italy have won more games recently than Luxembourg.
  • Italy are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Luxembourg Clean Sheet 20%
Italy Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luxembourg Italy
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 16
Draws 4 4
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 0.75 1.82
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 3, 2026 Friendly International
Luxembourg vs Italy
0:1
Jun 4, 2014 Friendly International
Italy vs Luxembourg
1:1
May 29, 2012 Friendly International
Italy vs Luxembourg
0:0
Dec 4, 1981 World Championship
Italy vs Luxembourg
1:0
Oct 10, 1980 World Championship
Luxembourg vs Italy
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luxembourg Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Esposito F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luxembourg 28 / 100
Italy 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luxembourg Italy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Luxembourg went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Luxembourg found the back of the net in 43% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Luxembourg VS Italy
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Luxembourg

(Home)
29 Sept
Luxembourg
0 : 3
Iceland
26 Sept
Bulgaria
1 : 2
Luxembourg
06 Jun
Albania
0 : 1
Luxembourg
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1
Italy
31 Mar
Luxembourg
3 : 0
Malta
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Italy

(Away)
28 Sept
Turkey
1 : 4
Italy
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1
Italy
31 Mar
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2 : 1
Italy
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