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Stadium Background

Lyon vs Auxerre

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Yaremchuk R.
Assist: Abner Vinicius
34'
Sub
Mangala O. In: Tessmann T.
Out: Mangala O.
35' Event
Diomande S.

AI Match Summary

Lyon in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lyon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Lyon
20%
Draws
28%
Auxerre
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lyon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Lyon have won more games recently than Auxerre.
  • Model gives Lyon a 52% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Lyon Clean Sheet 20%
Auxerre Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lyon Auxerre
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 13 9
Draws 7 9
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.73 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Ligue 1
Lyon vs Auxerre
3:1
Apr 25, 2026 Ligue 1
Lyon vs Auxerre
3:2
Nov 23, 2025 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Lyon
0:0
Apr 13, 2025 Ligue 1
Auxerre vs Lyon
1:3
Oct 27, 2024 Ligue 1
Lyon vs Auxerre
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lyon Compare

Top Goalscorer Yaremchuk R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Tolisso C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Auxerre Compare

Top Goalscorer Diomande S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Okoh B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lyon 85 / 100
Auxerre 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lyon Auxerre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lyon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Lyon went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Lyon's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Auxerre's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lyon VS Auxerre
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lyon

(Home)
19 Sept
Lyon
4 : 0
Rennes
16 Sept
Anderlecht
1 : 2
Lyon
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0
Lyon
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1
Auxerre
29 Aug
Lyon
1 : 1
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

Auxerre

(Away)
20 Sept
Auxerre
2 : 1
Brest
12 Sept
Auxerre
1 : 0
Nice
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1
Auxerre
29 Aug
Auxerre
1 : 3
Angers
22 Aug
Lens
5 : 2
Auxerre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)