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Lyon vs Celta Vigo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Niakhate M.
33'
Swedberg W.
43'
Starfelt C.

AI Match Summary

Celta Vigo in this Europa League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Lyon
35%
Draws
23%
Celta Vigo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lyon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Lyon have won more games recently than Celta Vigo.
  • Lyon are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Lyon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Celta Vigo, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Celta Vigo here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Lyon Clean Sheet 68%
Celta Vigo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lyon Celta Vigo
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 8
Draws 7 10
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.71 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
Lyon vs Celta Vigo
0:2
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Celta Vigo vs Lyon
1:1
Jul 29, 2023 Club Friendly
Celta Vigo vs Lyon
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lyon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Celta Vigo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rueda J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jutgla F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lyon 59 / 100
Celta Vigo 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lyon Celta Vigo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lyon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Lyon stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Lyon's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Celta Vigo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Lyon VS Celta Vigo
1.75 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lyon

(Home)
19 Sept
Lyon
4 : 0
Rennes
16 Sept
Anderlecht
1 : 2
Lyon
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0
Lyon
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1
Auxerre
29 Aug
Lyon
1 : 1
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

Celta Vigo

(Away)
19 Sept
Celta Vigo
5 : 0
Racing Santander
16 Sept
Omonia
1 : 0
Celta Vigo
13 Sept
Celta Vigo
1 : 1
Malaga
07 Sept
Getafe
1 : 1
Celta Vigo
03 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 0
Celta Vigo
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3