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Lyon vs Celta Vigo

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Niakhate M.
33'
Swedberg W.
43'
Starfelt C.

AI Match Summary

Celta Vigo in this Europa League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Lyon
40%
Draws
29%
Celta Vigo
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Lyon have won more games recently than Celta Vigo.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Lyon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Celta Vigo, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Celta Vigo here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Lyon Clean Sheet 12%
Celta Vigo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lyon Celta Vigo
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 18 11
Draws 4 8
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2.5 1.5
Goals Conceded 2 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
Lyon vs Celta Vigo
0:2
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Celta Vigo vs Lyon
1:1
Jul 29, 2023 Club Friendly
Celta Vigo vs Lyon
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lyon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Celta Vigo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rueda J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jutgla F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lyon 30 / 100
Celta Vigo 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lyon Celta Vigo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lyon's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Celta Vigo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Lyon has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lyon VS Celta Vigo
2.5 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lyon

(Home)
29 Jul
Betis
4 : 0
Lyon
24 Jul
Wolfsburg
0 : 2
Lyon
18 Jul
Slavia Prague
2 : 0
Lyon
15 Jul
Lyon
2 : 1
Servette
11 Jul
Lyon
6 : 3
St. Gallen
Page 1 of 7

Celta Vigo

(Away)
29 Jul
Celta Vigo
2 : 2
Academico Viseu
25 Jul
Celta Vigo
1 : 0
Gijon
18 Jul
Braga
2 : 2
Celta Vigo
23 May
Celta Vigo
1 : 0
Sevilla
17 May
Ath Bilbao
1 : 1
Celta Vigo
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Ludogorets2
Ferencvaros3
Braga-
TBD-
Panathinaikos4
Plzen3
Betis-
TBD-
Din. Zagreb4
Genk6
Freiburg-
TBD-
PAOK1
Celta Vigo3
Lyon-
TBD-
Celtic2
VfB Stuttgart4
FC Porto-
TBD-
Fenerbahce2
Nottingham4
Midtjylland-
TBD-
Brann0
Bologna2
AS Roma-
TBD-
Lille2
Crvena zvezda1
Aston Villa-
TBD-
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros2
Braga4
Panathinaikos1
Betis4
Genk2
Freiburg5
Celta Vigo3
Lyon1
VfB Stuttgart1
FC Porto4
Nottingham3
Midtjylland2
Bologna5
AS Roma4
Lille0
Aston Villa3
Quarter-finals
Braga5
Betis3
Freiburg6
Celta Vigo1
FC Porto1
Nottingham2
Bologna1
Aston Villa7
Semi-finals
Braga3
Freiburg4
Nottingham1
Aston Villa4
Final
Freiburg0
Aston Villa3