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M. Lipetsk vs Arsenal Tula 2 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Chikhradze S.
39' Event
Skvortsov A.
(Penalty)
67' Event
Grigorjev D.

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 game between M. Lipetsk and Arsenal Tula 2 finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward M. Lipetsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
M. Lipetsk
30%
Draws
12%
Arsenal Tula 2
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: M. Lipetsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and M. Lipetsk come out ahead of Arsenal Tula 2 on wins alone.
  • Model gives M. Lipetsk a 58% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors M. Lipetsk here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
M. Lipetsk Clean Sheet 20%
Arsenal Tula 2 Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric M. Lipetsk Arsenal Tula 2
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 4
Draws 6 10
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.69 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Arsenal Tula 2 vs M. Lipetsk
0:0
Jun 6, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
M. Lipetsk vs Arsenal Tula 2
3:1
Aug 24, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
M. Lipetsk vs Arsenal Tula 2
1:0
May 4, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Arsenal Tula 2 vs M. Lipetsk
1:2
Oct 15, 2022 FNL 2 - Group 3
M. Lipetsk vs Arsenal Tula 2
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

M. Lipetsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Chikhradze S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Grigorjev D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Arsenal Tula 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Kolyshev A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

M. Lipetsk 85 / 100
Arsenal Tula 2 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
M. Lipetsk Arsenal Tula 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick M. Lipetsk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal Tula 2 let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: M. Lipetsk scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

M. Lipetsk has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

M. Lipetsk VS Arsenal Tula 2
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

M. Lipetsk

(Home)
03 Oct
M. Lipetsk
2 : 0
Penza
27 Sept
Arsenal Tula 2
0 : 0
M. Lipetsk
19 Sept
M. Lipetsk
1 : 0
Strogino Moscow
12 Sept
SKA Khabarovsk 2
1 : 3
M. Lipetsk
05 Sept
M. Lipetsk
0 : 1
FK Shumbrat Saransk
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Arsenal Tula 2

(Away)
03 Oct
Rodina Moscow 3
1 : 0
Arsenal Tula 2
27 Sept
Arsenal Tula 2
0 : 0
M. Lipetsk
19 Sept
Penza
0 : 0
Arsenal Tula 2
13 Sept
Arsenal Tula 2
1 : 2
Saturn Ramenskoye
06 Sept
Arsenal Tula 2
1 : 2
Strogino Moscow
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