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Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Maardu linnastaadion, Maardu
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Laasner K.
Assist: Magi M.
10' Event
Volkov A.
Assist: Malinin V.
17' Event
Laasner K.
Assist: Teniste T.

AI Match Summary

Tartu JK Welco in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 1-8 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tartu JK Welco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Maardu Linnameeskond
20%
Draws
32%
Tartu JK Welco
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maardu Linnameeskond

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Tartu JK Welco have won more games recently than Maardu Linnameeskond.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Esiliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Maardu Linnameeskond Clean Sheet 10%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maardu Linnameeskond Tartu JK Welco
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 19
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.61 3.07
Goals Conceded 1.96 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 13, 2026 Esiliiga
Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
1:8
May 24, 2026 Esiliiga
Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
0:1
Mar 21, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Maardu Linnameeskond
5:1
Oct 2, 2021 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Maardu Linnameeskond
0:0
Sep 18, 2021 Esiliiga
Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maardu Linnameeskond Compare

Top Goalscorer Volkov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Laasner K.
5 Goals
Assists Leader Magi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maardu Linnameeskond 30 / 100
Tartu JK Welco 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maardu Linnameeskond Tartu JK Welco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maardu Linnameeskond found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (27 games).

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Tartu JK Welco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Maardu Linnameeskond stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maardu Linnameeskond VS Tartu JK Welco
1.63 Goals Scored 2.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Maardu Linnameeskond

(Home)
19 Sept
Levadia U21
:
Maardu Linnameeskond
06 Sept
Maardu Linnameeskond
2 : 1
Nomme Utd U21
29 Aug
Maardu Linnameeskond
4 : 2
Levadia U21
24 Aug
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 3
Maardu Linnameeskond
20 Aug
Elva
1 : 0
Maardu Linnameeskond
Page 1 of 6

Tartu JK Welco

(Away)
17 Sept
Viimsi JK
0 : 2
Tartu JK Welco
14 Sept
Tartu JK Welco
3 : 0
Kalju U21
10 Sept
Levadia U21
0 : 0
Tartu JK Welco
05 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
29 Aug
Tartu JK Welco
1 : 3
Viimsi JK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tartu JK Welco 30 19 5 6 81:39 62
2 Viimsi JK 30 15 5 10 56:31 50
3 Flora Tallinn U21 30 14 6 10 72:53 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 47:44 48
5 Maardu Linnameeskond 27 12 5 10 45:55 41
6 Levadia U21 29 13 2 14 60:55 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 52:55 37
8 Nomme Utd U21 30 10 6 14 50:62 36
9 FC Tallinn 29 7 8 14 35:63 29
10 Kalju U21 30 6 4 20 38:79 22
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)