Sport Picks
Maastricht vs Willem II - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Netherlands
Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 De Geusselt, Maastricht 
Match Events
17'
17'
Breugelmans I.
Own Goal
35'
35'
Verheijen T.
37'
37'
Coomans W.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
Willem II in this Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Willem II.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maastricht
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Willem II have won more games recently than Maastricht.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Maastricht Clean Sheet 11%
Willem II Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Maastricht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 8 | 15 |
| Draws | 9 | 5 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 1.89 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 22, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Maastricht vs Willem II
0:5
Oct 26, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Willem II vs Maastricht
2:2
Apr 20, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Maastricht vs Willem II
1:1
Sep 8, 2023 Eerste Divisie
Willem II vs Maastricht
2:1
Mar 26, 2023 Eerste Divisie
Willem II vs Maastricht
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Maastricht Compare
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97
Willem II Compare
Top Goalscorer Verheydt T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Doodeman N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Maastricht 30 / 100
Willem II 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Maastricht Willem II
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Maastricht scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Willem II has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.
Difficult form: Willem II registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Maastricht VS Willem II
1.25 Goals Scored 1
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Maastricht
(Home) 03 Oct
TOP Oss
4 : 1 Maastricht
26 Sept
Maastricht
2 : 0 Helmond Sport
18 Sept
Waalwijk
6 : 1 Maastricht
11 Sept
Maastricht
0 : 4 Almere City
06 Sept
Maastricht
1 : 1 Roda
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26 Sept
Maastricht
2 : 0 Helmond Sport
11 Sept
Maastricht
0 : 4 Almere City
06 Sept
Maastricht
1 : 1 Roda
21 Aug
Maastricht
1 : 0 FC Volendam
09 Aug
Maastricht
2 : 1 Jong Utrecht
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Willem II
(Away) 19 Sept
Willem II
0 : 1 Sittard
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1 Willem II
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1 Willem II
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3 Excelsior
30 Aug
Willem II
2 : 2 Heerenveen
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15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1 Willem II
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1 Willem II
08 Aug
G.A. Eagles
4 : 1 Willem II
29 Jun
RKDSV
0 : 11 Willem II
23 May
FC Volendam
1 : 3 Willem II
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Den Haag | 38 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 90:37 | 89 |
| 2 | Cambuur | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 75:48 | 78 |
| 3 | Willem II | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 59:42 | 68 |
| 4 | De Graafschap | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 74:58 | 63 |
| 5 | Almere City | 38 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 78:63 | 58 |
| 6 | Waalwijk | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 71:59 | 58 |
| 7 | Jong PSV | 38 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 66:64 | 56 |
| 8 | Roda | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 59:54 | 55 |
| 9 | Den Bosch | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 65:69 | 51 |
| 10 | Dordrecht | 38 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 48:56 | 47 |
| 11 | Eindhoven FC | 38 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 51:69 | 47 |
| 12 | Jong Utrecht | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 58:62 | 46 |
| 13 | Venlo | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 50:58 | 45 |
| 14 | FC Emmen | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 58:72 | 45 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 64:55 | 44 |
| 16 | TOP Oss | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 54:64 | 44 |
| 17 | Jong AZ Alkmaar | 38 | 12 | 4 | 22 | 61:76 | 40 |
| 18 | Helmond Sport | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 42:62 | 39 |
| 19 | Maastricht | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 41:73 | 38 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 38 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 50:73 | 35 |
Promotion - Eredivisie (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
