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Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City

Australia Australia

A-League Campbelltown Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Duke M.
Assist: Scott W.
9' Event
Brattan L.
24' Event
Memeti M.
Assist: Atkinson N.

AI Match Summary

Macarthur FC in this A-League matchup, with the score ending 6-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Macarthur FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Macarthur FC
28%
Draws
50%
Melbourne City
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Melbourne City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Macarthur FC lately — more wins on the board than Melbourne City.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Melbourne City taking it.
  • Regular A-League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Macarthur FC Clean Sheet 10%
Melbourne City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macarthur FC Melbourne City
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 2.63 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 A-League
Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City
6:2
Dec 23, 2025 A-League
Melbourne City vs Macarthur FC
1:1
Mar 7, 2025 A-League
Melbourne City vs Macarthur FC
2:0
Jan 25, 2025 A-League
Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City
1:0
Mar 1, 2024 A-League
Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Macarthur FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Duke M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brattan L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Melbourne City Compare

Top Goalscorer Memeti M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Younis M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macarthur FC 22 / 100
Melbourne City 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macarthur FC Melbourne City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MCY Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Macarthur FC found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Melbourne City let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Macarthur FC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Macarthur FC VS Melbourne City
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
2.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Newcastle Jets26153855:3948
2Adelaide Utd26127746:3643
3Auckland FC26119642:2942
4Melbourne Victory26117844:3340
5Sydney FC26116933:2539
6Melbourne City26108833:3338
7Macarthur FC26971037:4434
8Wellington Phoenix26961136:4833
9Central Coast26881035:4232
10Perth Glory26871132:3931
11Brisbane Roar26681227:3626
12Western Sydney Wanderers26561527:4321