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Maceratese vs Foligno - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maceratese host Foligno in the Serie D - Group F. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Maceratese have averaged 1.21 scored and 1.38 conceded recently, against Foligno's 1.1 scored and 1.1 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (0.81 - 1.13) back Foligno to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Maceratese
20%
Draws
47%
Foligno
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Foligno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Foligno come out ahead of Maceratese on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 20%
Foligno Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maceratese Foligno
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 5 8
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.21 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maceratese 31 / 100
Foligno 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maceratese Foligno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maceratese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maceratese found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Foligno's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Maceratese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Foligno's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Maceratese VS Foligno
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maceratese

(Home)
04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3
Maceratese
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1
Santegidiese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2
Maceratese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1
Ancona
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1
Maceratese
Page 1 of 6

Foligno

(Away)
04 Oct
Foligno
1 : 0
Angelana
27 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 1
Foligno
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0
Notaresco Calcio
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 1
Foligno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aquila Calcio 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Teramo 6 4 1 1 17:11 13
3 Vigor Senigallia 6 4 1 1 14:10 13
4 Foligno 6 4 1 1 7:6 13
5 Ancona 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
6 Fossombrone 6 3 1 2 6:9 10
7 Notaresco Calcio 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
8 Montecchio Gallo 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
9 Santegidiese 6 2 2 2 6:7 8
10 Giulianova 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
11 Lanciano FC 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
12 Termoli 6 2 1 3 4:5 7
13 Maceratese 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
14 Atletico Ascoli 6 2 1 3 6:8 7
15 Recanatese 6 1 3 2 8:9 6
16 Angelana 6 1 1 4 4:8 4
17 Sporting Trestina 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
18 Pietralunga 6 0 2 4 2:9 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)