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Maceratese vs Termoli

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Mercuri L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Maceratese and Termoli finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Termoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Maceratese
20%
Draws
50%
Termoli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Termoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Maceratese carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 21%
Termoli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maceratese Termoli
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 7
Draws 5 13
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.24 0.65
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Termoli
0:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Termoli vs Maceratese
2:2
Feb 8, 2015 Serie D - Group F
Termoli vs Maceratese
1:4
Sep 28, 2014 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Termoli
4:0
May 11, 2014 Serie D - Group A
Termoli vs Maceratese
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maceratese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Termoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Mercuri L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maceratese 37 / 100
Termoli 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maceratese Termoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Termoli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Maceratese scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Termoli conceded in 65% of 31 recent games.

Maceratese has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maceratese VS Termoli
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 25%
63% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maceratese

(Home)
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2
Maceratese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1
Ancona
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1
Maceratese
06 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 3
Teramo
03 May
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0
Maceratese
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Termoli

(Away)
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
16 Sept
Giulianova
0 : 0
Termoli
13 Sept
Termoli
1 : 0
Angelana
06 Sept
Aquila Calcio
1 : 0
Termoli
03 May
Termoli
1 : 1
Aquila Calcio
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)