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Machico vs Estrela Calheta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Machico
35%
Draws
13%
Estrela Calheta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Machico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Machico lately — more wins on the board than Estrela Calheta.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Machico taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Machico Clean Sheet 20%
Estrela Calheta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Machico Estrela Calheta
Matches Played 29 13
Wins 11 2
Draws 8 3
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.1 0.69
Goals Conceded 1.1 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.47
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Machico vs Estrela Calheta
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Machico 85 / 100
Estrela Calheta 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Machico Estrela Calheta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Machico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Machico's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Estrela Calheta conceded in 77% of 13 recent games.

Machico has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Estrela Calheta lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Machico VS Estrela Calheta
1 Goals Scored 0.57
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.71
38% Over 1.5 71%
25% Over 2.5 57%
0% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Machico

(Home)
13 Sept
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Machico
04 Sept
SC Salgueiros
1 : 1
Machico
30 Aug
Machico
2 : 3
Camacha
23 Aug
Beira Mar
0 : 2
Machico
15 Aug
Machico
0 : 0
Estrela Calheta
Page 1 of 6

Estrela Calheta

(Away)
04 Oct
Castro Daire
3 : 0
Estrela Calheta
27 Sept
Estrela Calheta
2 : 2
Cinfaes
20 Sept
Estrela Calheta
1 : 3
SC Vianense
13 Sept
Estrela Calheta
0 : 3
UD Ovarense
15 Aug
Machico
0 : 0
Estrela Calheta
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Ovarense 4 4 0 0 8:0 12
2 Machico 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
3 Camacha 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
4 Castro Daire 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
5 Florgrade 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
6 SC Salgueiros 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
7 Cinfaes 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
8 Sanjoanense 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
9 Uniao Lamas 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
10 Beira Mar 4 0 3 1 4:6 3
11 FC Alpendorada 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
12 Estrela Calheta 4 0 2 2 2:8 2
13 Guarda FC 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
14 Sousense 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)