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Stadium Background

Machida Zelvia vs Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai

Asia Asia

AFC Champions League 2025/2026 King Abdullah Sports City
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Soma Y.
49'
Sousa P.
59'
Sub
Erik In: Na Sang-Ho
Out: Erik

AI Match Summary

Machida Zelvia host Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai in the AFC Champions League 2025/2026. This has Machida Zelvia written all over it on paper. Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai have shipped 1.25 goals a game lately, while Machida Zelvia have conceded 0.63 and scored 1.38. Past meetings favor Machida Zelvia slightly — 1-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 21, 2026, ending 1:0. xG projections (1.20 - 1.00) back Machida Zelvia to edge this. Machida Zelvia in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Machida Zelvia
33%
Draws
27%
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Machida Zelvia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Machida Zelvia has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai.
  • Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Machida Zelvia.
  • Cup tournament structure in AFC Champions League 2025/2026 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 68%
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Machida Zelvia Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 21 15
Draws 2 6
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.38 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2026 AFC Champions League
Machida Zelvia vs Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Machida Zelvia Compare

Top Goalscorer Soma Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Machida Zelvia 50 / 100
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Machida Zelvia Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Machida Zelvia scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Machida Zelvia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Machida Zelvia VS Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Al Hilal3
Al-Sadd4
Vissel Kobe3
Seoul1
Al Ahli SC1
Al-Duhail0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2
Johor DT3
Machida Zelvia1
Gangwon0
Al Ittihad1
Al Wahda0
Buriram United F.C.2
Melbourne City1
Tractor0
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai3
Quarter-finals
Al-Sadd3
Vissel Kobe4
Al Ahli SC2
Johor DT1
Machida Zelvia1
Al Ittihad0
Buriram United F.C.2
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai3
Semi-finals
Vissel Kobe1
Al Ahli SC2
Machida Zelvia1
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai0
Final
Al Ahli SC1
Machida Zelvia0