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Stadium Background

Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Reds

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 New National Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Erik
45'
Naganuma Y.
54'
Sub
Erik In: Sento K.
Out: Erik

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Machida Zelvia and Urawa Reds finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Machida Zelvia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Machida Zelvia
17%
Draws
13%
Urawa Reds
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Machida Zelvia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Machida Zelvia come out ahead of Urawa Reds on wins alone.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Machida Zelvia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 68%
Urawa Reds Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Machida Zelvia Urawa Reds
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 21 12
Draws 3 3
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.38 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Reds
1:0
Mar 22, 2026 J1 League
Urawa Reds vs Machida Zelvia
1:2
Oct 25, 2025 J1 League
Urawa Reds vs Machida Zelvia
0:0
Apr 13, 2025 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Reds
0:2
Aug 31, 2024 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Reds
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Machida Zelvia Compare

Top Goalscorer Erik
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Urawa Reds Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Machida Zelvia 77 / 100
Urawa Reds 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Machida Zelvia Urawa Reds

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Machida Zelvia scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Urawa Reds let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Machida Zelvia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Machida Zelvia VS Urawa Reds
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121