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Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Reds

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 New National Stadium, Tokyo
Machida Zelvia Logo

Machida Zelvia

1 - 0
FT
Urawa Reds Logo

Urawa Reds

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Erik
45'
Naganuma Y.
54'
Sub
Erik In: Sento K.
Out: Erik
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Machida Zelvia and Urawa Reds finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Machida Zelvia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Machida Zelvia
15%
Draws
46%
Urawa Reds
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Urawa Reds

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Machida Zelvia come out ahead of Urawa Reds on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Machida Zelvia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 17%
Urawa Reds Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Machida Zelvia Urawa Reds
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 20 11
Draws 3 2
Losses 6 16
Goals Scored 1.76 1.66
Goals Conceded 1 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Reds
3:1
May 22, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Reds
1:0
Mar 22, 2026 J1 League
Urawa Reds vs Machida Zelvia
1:2
Oct 25, 2025 J1 League
Urawa Reds vs Machida Zelvia
0:0
Apr 13, 2025 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Reds
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Machida Zelvia Compare

Top Goalscorer Erik
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Urawa Reds Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Machida Zelvia 36 / 100
Urawa Reds 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Machida Zelvia Urawa Reds

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Machida Zelvia scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Urawa Reds let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Machida Zelvia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Machida Zelvia VS Urawa Reds
2.75 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Machida Zelvia

(Home)
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4
Kashiwa Reysol
17 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 0
Svay Rieng
12 Sept
Machida Zelvia
1 : 1
Yokohama F. Marinos
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3
Machida Zelvia
02 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1
Kawasaki Frontale
Page 1 of 6

Urawa Reds

(Away)
19 Sept
Urawa Reds
3 : 1
Verdy
13 Sept
Urawa Reds
1 : 2
Okayama
06 Sept
Kashima Antlers
0 : 1
Urawa Reds
02 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 3
Urawa Reds
29 Aug
Urawa Reds
3 : 2
Yokohama F. Marinos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)