Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Madagascar vs Comoros

Africa Africa

COSAFA Cup Toyota Stadium (Free State), Bloemfontein
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Madi I.
21'
Rajaonarivelo R.
32'
Sub
Anziz O. A. In: Kari Y.
Out: Anziz O. A.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Madagascar
20%
Draws
44%
Comoros
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Comoros

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Madagascar have won more games recently than Comoros.
  • Model gives Madagascar a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Madagascar have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Comoros, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Madagascar Clean Sheet 20%
Comoros Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Madagascar Comoros
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 12 10
Draws 4 3
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.41 1
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2025 World Championship
Comoros vs Madagascar
1:2
Jun 15, 2025 COSAFA Cup
Madagascar vs Comoros
0:1
Nov 18, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Comoros vs Madagascar
1:0
Sep 9, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Madagascar vs Comoros
1:1
Jun 7, 2024 World Championship
Madagascar vs Comoros
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Madagascar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Comoros Compare

Top Goalscorer Youssouf I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Madagascar 36 / 100
Comoros 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Madagascar Comoros

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Madagascar scored in 78% of their last 27 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Madagascar stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Comoros has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Madagascar VS Comoros
1.33 Goals Scored 0.25
1.67 Goals Conceded 1.13
83% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
33% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Madagascar

(Home)
29 Sept
Madagascar
1 : 1
Tanzania
25 Sept
Nigeria
2 : 1
Madagascar
02 Jun
Morocco
4 : 0
Madagascar
31 Mar
Equatorial Guinea
1 : 1
Madagascar
28 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
2 : 5
Madagascar
Page 1 of 6

Comoros

(Away)
29 Sept
Comoros
1 : 0
Namibia
24 Sept
Cameroon
3 : 1
Comoros
09 Jun
Equatorial Guinea
0 : 1
Comoros
06 Jun
Morocco U23
2 : 1
Comoros
31 Mar
Kazakhstan
1 : 0
Comoros
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Angola 4
Madagascar 1
South Africa 3
Comoros 1
Final
Angola 3
South Africa 0
Madagascar 0
Comoros 1