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Madagascar vs Rwanda Prediction & H2H Stats

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Friendly International 2024 Mahamasina Municipal Stadium, Antananarivo
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Match Events

29' Event
Mugisha G.
Assist: Muhire K.
46'
Sub
Raheriniaina E. H. In: Randriantsiferana T.
Out: Raheriniaina E. H.
90' Event
Bizimana D.

AI Match Summary

Rwanda in this Friendly International 2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Rwanda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Madagascar
20%
Draws
56%
Rwanda
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Rwanda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Madagascar at 1.36 per game, Rwanda at 1.11.
  • Win probability leans Rwanda's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Madagascar Clean Sheet 17%
Rwanda Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Madagascar Rwanda
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 12
Draws 4 4
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.36 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.43 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2024 Friendly International
Madagascar vs Rwanda
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Madagascar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Rwanda Compare

Top Goalscorer Mugisha G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bizimana D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Madagascar 20 / 100
Rwanda 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Madagascar Rwanda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rwanda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madagascar scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Rwanda let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Madagascar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Madagascar VS Rwanda
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Madagascar

(Home)
29 Sept
Madagascar
1 : 1
Tanzania
25 Sept
Nigeria
2 : 1
Madagascar
02 Jun
Morocco
4 : 0
Madagascar
31 Mar
Equatorial Guinea
1 : 1
Madagascar
28 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
2 : 5
Madagascar
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Rwanda

(Away)
29 Sept
Cape Verde
1 : 2
Rwanda
25 Sept
Rwanda
3 : 1
Liberia
30 Mar
Rwanda
2 : 0
Estonia
27 Mar
Rwanda
4 : 0
Grenada
14 Oct
South Africa
3 : 0
Rwanda
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