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Madagascar W vs Malawi W

Africa Africa

COSAFA Cup Women 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Chikupira V.
25' Event
Chinyamula L.
33' Event
Randrianarivelo H.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Malawi W in this COSAFA Cup Women 2023 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Madagascar W
20%
Draws
42%
Malawi W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Malawi W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Madagascar W haven't matched Malawi W's recent run of results.
  • 42% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Malawi W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Malawi W, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Malawi W have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Madagascar W Clean Sheet 22%
Malawi W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Madagascar W Malawi W
Matches Played 19 33
Wins 7 16
Draws 3 3
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.37 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2024 COSAFA Cup Women
Malawi W vs Madagascar W
1:0
Oct 10, 2023 COSAFA Cup Women
Madagascar W vs Malawi W
1:3
Jul 31, 2019 COSAFA Cup Women
Malawi W vs Madagascar W
2:0
Sep 14, 2018 COSAFA Cup Women
Madagascar W vs Malawi W
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Madagascar W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Malawi W Compare

Top Goalscorer Chikupira V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chinyamula L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Madagascar W 37 / 100
Malawi W 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Madagascar W Malawi W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malawi W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:4
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madagascar W found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (19 games).

Malawi W let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Madagascar W has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Madagascar W VS Malawi W
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Madagascar W

(Home)
09 Jun
Madagascar W
1 : 0
South Sudan W
06 Jun
South Sudan W
1 : 1
Madagascar W
25 Feb
Mozambique W
2 : 0
Madagascar W
23 Feb
Namibia W
0 : 1
Madagascar W
28 Oct
Madagascar W
0 : 0
Botswana W
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Malawi W

(Away)
16 Aug
Cameroon W
3 : 0
Malawi W
12 Aug
Algeria W
1 : 3
Malawi W
09 Aug
Malawi W
2 : 1
Ghana W
05 Aug
Malawi W
1 : 2
Zambia W
01 Aug
Egypt W
1 : 3
Malawi W
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malawi W 3 3 0 0 15:4 9
2 South Africa W 3 2 0 1 9:5 6
3 Eswatini W 3 1 0 2 2:12 3
4 Madagascar W 3 0 0 3 3:8 0
Promotion - COSAFA Cup Women 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zambia W 3 2 1 0 8:2 7
2 Mozambique W 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
3 Angola W 3 1 0 2 6:4 3
4 Comoros W 3 0 0 3 2:13 0
Promotion - COSAFA Cup Women 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zimbabwe W 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
2 Botswana W 3 1 2 0 5:2 5
3 Namibia W 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
4 Lesotho W 3 0 0 3 0:6 0
Promotion - COSAFA Cup Women 2023 (Play Offs)