Sport Picks
Match Events
3'
3'
Luciano
8'
8'
Geovane Maranhao
1'
1'
Keven
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
35%
37%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bonsucesso
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Bonsucesso have won more games recently than Madureira.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Madureira taking it.
- Bonsucesso arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Bonsucesso, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Madureira Clean Sheet 68%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Madureira | Bonsucesso |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.45 | 0.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 22, 2026 Copa Rio
Madureira vs Bonsucesso
2:1
Jul 15, 2026 Copa Rio
Bonsucesso vs Madureira
2:2
Aug 28, 2024 Copa Rio
Madureira vs Bonsucesso
0:2
Aug 21, 2024 Copa Rio
Bonsucesso vs Madureira
1:1
Mar 25, 2015 Carioca
Madureira vs Bonsucesso
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Madureira Compare
Top Goalscorer Geovane Maranhao
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Bonsucesso Compare
Top Goalscorer Luciano
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Madureira 51 / 100
Bonsucesso 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Madureira Bonsucesso
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Madureira's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Bonsucesso has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Madureira went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Madureira VS Bonsucesso
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Madureira
(Home) 16 Sept
Sampaio Correa FE
1 : 1 Madureira
02 Sept
Madureira
0 : 0 Boavista
26 Aug
Boavista
2 : 0 Madureira
12 Aug
Madureira
1 : 1 Portuguesa RJ
05 Aug
Portuguesa RJ
0 : 1 Madureira
Page 1 of 6
02 Sept
Madureira
0 : 0 Boavista
12 Aug
Madureira
1 : 1 Portuguesa RJ
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1 Bonsucesso
06 Jun
Madureira
1 : 0 Pouso Alegre
23 May
Madureira
1 : 1 Portuguesa RJ
Page 1 of 3
Bonsucesso
(Away) 22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1 Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2 Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1 Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2 America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0 Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1 Bonsucesso
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1 Bonsucesso
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0 Bonsucesso
20 Jun
Sao Goncalo
2 : 0 Bonsucesso
10 Jun
Marica
0 : 0 Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Americano 2
Macae 1
TBD -
Portuguesa RJ -
Cabofriense 1
Bonsucesso 3
TBD -
Madureira -
Perolas Negras 10
Santa Cruz RJ 1
TBD -
Marica -
CEAC/Araruama 2
Sao Cristovao 1
TBD -
Boavista -
Olaria 6
Duque de Caxias 0
TBD -
Bangu -
America RJ -
Goytacaz -
TBD -
Nova Iguacu -
Sao Goncalo 3
Serrano FC 2
TBD -
Volta Redonda -
Resende 11
Belford Roxo 2
TBD -
Sampaio Correa FE -
1/8-finals
Americano 1
Portuguesa RJ 2
Bonsucesso 3
Madureira 4
Perolas Negras 0
Marica 3
CEAC/Araruama 0
Boavista 5
Olaria 3
Bangu 1
America RJ 1
Nova Iguacu 2
Sao Goncalo 2
Volta Redonda 1
Resende 0
Sampaio Correa FE 3
Quarter-finals
Portuguesa RJ 1
Madureira 2
Marica 1
Boavista 3
Olaria 0
Nova Iguacu 1
Sao Goncalo 0
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Semi-finals
Madureira 0
Boavista 2
Nova Iguacu 3
Sampaio Correa FE 2
Final
Boavista 1
Nova Iguacu 1
Madureira 1
Sampaio Correa FE 1
