Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mafra vs Academica

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
Mafra Logo

Mafra

3 - 3
FT
Academica Logo

Academica

Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Sambu B.
6'
Silva L.
10' Event
Iheanacho S.
Assist: Matos R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Mafra
20%
Draws
47%
Academica
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Academica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Academica lately — more wins on the board than Mafra.
  • Win probability leans Mafra's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Mafra Clean Sheet 68%
Academica Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mafra Academica
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 15
Draws 8 9
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.55 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Academica
3:3
Mar 15, 2026 Liga 3
Academica vs Mafra
2:0
Dec 6, 2025 Liga 3
Academica vs Mafra
3:3
Aug 24, 2025 Liga 3
Mafra vs Academica
1:0
Apr 30, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Academica vs Mafra
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Iheanacho S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Neves L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Academica Compare

Top Goalscorer Souza B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Miguel B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mafra 50 / 100
Academica 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mafra Academica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mafra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mafra found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Academica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Mafra went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mafra VS Academica
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mafra

(Home)
15 Aug
Atletico CP
1 : 1
Mafra
08 Aug
Mafra
5 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
01 Aug
Mafra
1 : 2
Sintrense
25 Jul
Mafra
1 : 0
Alverca
15 Jul
Fredericia
3 : 2
Mafra
Page 1 of 6

Academica

(Away)
14 Aug
Academica
1 : 0
Feirense
08 Aug
Chaves
1 : 4
Academica
01 Aug
Caldas SC
3 : 2
Academica
31 Jul
Santarem
0 : 0
Academica
25 Jul
FC Porto B
1 : 3
Academica
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)