Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mafra vs Varzim

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
Mafra Logo

Mafra

1 - 0
FT
Varzim Logo

Varzim

Our Tip

Match Events

15'
v
46'
Sub
Beni D. In: Ferreira J.
Out: Beni D.
58'
Franca F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Mafra and Varzim finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mafra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Mafra
20%
Draws
38%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mafra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Varzim haven't matched Mafra's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Mafra's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Mafra Clean Sheet 68%
Varzim Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mafra Varzim
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.59 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Mafra
0:2
Feb 15, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Varzim
1:0
May 15, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Varzim vs Mafra
2:0
Jan 8, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Mafra vs Varzim
0:0
Mar 20, 2021 Liga Portugal 2
Varzim vs Mafra
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Camara M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Varzim Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mafra 59 / 100
Varzim 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mafra Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mafra found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

Varzim's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Mafra has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Mafra VS Varzim
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mafra

(Home)
08 Aug
Mafra
5 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
01 Aug
Mafra
1 : 2
Sintrense
25 Jul
Mafra
1 : 0
Alverca
15 Jul
Fredericia
3 : 2
Mafra
11 Jul
Esbjerg
0 : 2
Mafra
Page 1 of 6

Varzim

(Away)
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
02 Aug
Varzim
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
29 Jul
Tirsense
0 : 1
Varzim
15 Jul
Tondela
1 : 0
Varzim
16 May
Santarem
2 : 2
Varzim
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)