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Mafra vs Vitoria Guimaraes B

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Nogueira M.
Assist: Rodrigo Silva
53'
Oliveira A.
57'
Sub
Tepe M. In: Fernandes Ribeiro R. J.
Out: Tepe M.

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes B in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Guimaraes B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Mafra
20%
Draws
29%
Vitoria Guimaraes B
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mafra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Mafra average 1.55 goals a game right now, well clear of Vitoria Guimaraes B's 1.23.
  • Model gives Mafra a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Mafra Clean Sheet 20%
Vitoria Guimaraes B Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mafra Vitoria Guimaraes B
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.55 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Mafra
0:2
Mar 8, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
1:2
Jan 28, 2019 Liga Portugal 2
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Mafra
1:2
Aug 18, 2018 Liga Portugal 2
Mafra vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
2:0
Apr 10, 2016 Liga Portugal 2
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Mafra
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Lima A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Vitoria Guimaraes B Compare

Top Goalscorer Nogueira M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mafra 42 / 100
Vitoria Guimaraes B 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mafra Vitoria Guimaraes B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mafra scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Vitoria Guimaraes B conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Mafra stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mafra VS Vitoria Guimaraes B
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mafra

(Home)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1
Mafra
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
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Vitoria Guimaraes B

(Away)
12 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
21 Aug
AD Fafe
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
07 Aug
Paredes
3 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)