Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Magenta vs Varesina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Grandinetti S.
79' Event
La Vigna N.
86' Event
Raso A.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Magenta in this Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Magenta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Magenta
30%
Draws
33%
Varesina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Magenta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Magenta haven't matched Varesina's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Magenta taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Magenta Clean Sheet 20%
Varesina Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Magenta Varesina
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 8
Draws 10 11
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 0.9 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Magenta
1:1
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Magenta vs Varesina
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Magenta Compare

Top Goalscorer Grandinetti S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader La Vigna N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Varesina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Magenta 42 / 100
Varesina 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Magenta Varesina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varesina let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Magenta went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Magenta scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Varesina
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Magenta

(Home)
04 May
Varesina
1 : 1
Magenta
27 Apr
Magenta
2 : 0
Sant'Angelo
17 Apr
Chievo
4 : 0
Magenta
13 Apr
Magenta
0 : 0
Sangiuliano City
06 Apr
Breno
1 : 3
Magenta
Page 1 of 6

Varesina

(Away)
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ospitaletto 38 21 12 5 66:34 75
2 Pro Palazzolo 38 20 10 8 69:36 70
3 Desenzano Calvina 38 19 12 7 51:29 69
4 USD Casatese 38 19 11 8 58:34 68
5 Folgore Caratese 38 20 8 10 66:42 68
6 Varesina 38 17 13 8 61:44 64
7 Chievo 38 16 9 13 49:37 57
8 Pro Sesto 38 13 13 12 45:43 52
9 Club Milano 38 14 7 17 44:50 49
10 Sant'Angelo 38 11 15 12 41:41 48
11 Sondrio 38 12 11 15 39:51 47
12 Breno 38 11 14 13 42:53 47
13 Castellanzese 38 10 16 12 43:53 46
14 Vigasio 38 11 12 15 39:41 45
15 Sangiuliano City 38 11 12 15 39:46 45
16 Crema 38 11 11 16 48:57 44
17 Magenta 38 8 12 18 33:53 36
18 Fanfulla 38 6 14 18 28:57 32
19 Ciliverghe Mazzano 38 7 10 21 41:70 31
20 Arconatese 38 7 10 21 33:64 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 (Play Offs)