Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maidenhead vs Tonbridge

England England

National League South
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maidenhead host Tonbridge in the National League South. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Maidenhead at 1.26 goals for, 1.19 against; Tonbridge at 1.67 for, 1.1 against. Past meetings favor Maidenhead slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 10, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.06 - 1.69) back Tonbridge to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Maidenhead
20%
Draws
29%
Tonbridge
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maidenhead

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tonbridge lately — more wins on the board than Maidenhead.
  • Maidenhead are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Maidenhead Clean Sheet 13%
Tonbridge Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maidenhead Tonbridge
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 15
Draws 9 4
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.26 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 10, 2026 National League South
Tonbridge vs Maidenhead
0:1
Oct 21, 2025 National League South
Maidenhead vs Tonbridge
1:1
Apr 12, 2014 National League South
Maidenhead vs Tonbridge
0:0
Mar 4, 2014 National League South
Tonbridge vs Maidenhead
2:4
Jan 12, 2013 National League South
Tonbridge vs Maidenhead
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maidenhead 48 / 100
Tonbridge 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maidenhead Tonbridge

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maidenhead Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maidenhead found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Tonbridge conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Maidenhead went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maidenhead VS Tonbridge
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maidenhead

(Home)
26 Sept
Chesham
0 : 4
Maidenhead
19 Sept
Maidenhead
1 : 3
Ebbsfleet
12 Sept
Maidenhead
2 : 2
Billericay
08 Sept
Maidenhead
0 : 4
Torquay
05 Sept
Dover Ath.
0 : 3
Maidenhead
Page 1 of 7

Tonbridge

(Away)
03 Oct
Tonbridge
0 : 1
Torquay
26 Sept
Tonbridge
1 : 2
Ebbsfleet
19 Sept
Tonbridge
2 : 1
Ramsgate
12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1
Tonbridge
08 Sept
Tonbridge
0 : 1
Maidstone
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maidstone 10 6 1 3 18:11 19
2 Dagenham & Red. 10 6 1 3 10:7 19
3 Salisbury 10 5 3 2 18:7 18
4 Billericay 10 5 3 2 21:14 18
5 Weston-super-Mare 10 5 2 3 18:10 17
6 Truro 9 5 2 2 13:5 17
7 Dover Ath. 10 5 2 3 17:16 17
8 Dorking Wanderers 10 4 4 2 22:16 16
9 Farnham 9 5 1 3 14:12 16
10 Tonbridge 10 4 2 4 19:11 14
11 Maidenhead 10 3 4 3 12:11 13
12 Hemel Hempstead 10 3 4 3 10:10 13
13 Torquay 10 3 4 3 13:14 13
14 Folkestone 9 3 3 3 15:11 12
15 Chelmsford 9 1 8 0 9:8 11
16 Horsham FC 9 2 5 2 9:10 11
17 Farnborough 9 3 2 4 8:13 11
18 Chesham 10 3 1 6 16:19 10
19 Braintree 9 3 1 5 16:22 10
20 AFC Totton 9 3 1 5 8:15 10
21 Ebbsfleet 5 2 3 0 6:3 9
22 Hampton & Richmond 10 2 2 6 11:24 8
23 Slough Town 10 1 1 8 10:24 4
24 Walton & Hersham 9 0 2 7 6:26 2
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)