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Stadium Background

Mainz II vs Aalen

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Gaudino G.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Seitz S.
75' Event
Moreno Fell F.

AI Match Summary

The Regionalliga Sudwest game between Mainz II and Aalen finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aalen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Mainz II
15%
Draws
53%
Aalen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aalen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aalen come out ahead of Mainz II on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Mainz II Clean Sheet 12%
Aalen Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mainz II Aalen
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 17
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 4
Goals Scored 1.41 2.18
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Aalen
1:3
Mar 2, 2024 Regionalliga Sudwest
Aalen vs Mainz II
0:0
Aug 29, 2023 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Aalen
1:1
Apr 15, 2023 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Aalen
4:1
Oct 9, 2022 Regionalliga Sudwest
Aalen vs Mainz II
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mainz II Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreno Fell F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Aalen Compare

Top Goalscorer Seitz S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gross L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mainz II 35 / 100
Aalen 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mainz II Aalen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aalen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mainz II found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Aalen's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Mainz II stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mainz II VS Aalen
1 Goals Scored 1.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mainz II

(Home)
26 Sept
Kassel
1 : 2
Mainz II
19 Sept
Mainz II
0 : 1
Kaiserslautern II
12 Sept
Freiberg
5 : 0
Mainz II
09 Sept
Mainz II
1 : 2
VfR Mannheim
05 Sept
Stutt. Kickers
1 : 2
Mainz II
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Aalen

(Away)
26 Sept
Kickers Offenbach
1 : 3
Aalen
19 Sept
Aalen
2 : 3
Freiberg
13 Sept
VfR Mannheim
0 : 0
Aalen
08 Sept
Aalen
2 : 0
Ulm
05 Sept
Aalen
2 : 0
Eintracht Trier
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Freiberg 9 5 4 0 24:9 19
2 Kickers Offenbach 9 6 1 2 20:11 19
3 Stutt. Kickers 9 5 2 2 17:13 17
4 Eintracht Trier 9 5 1 3 10:7 16
5 Aalen 9 4 3 2 14:10 15
6 VfR Mannheim 9 3 5 1 14:9 14
7 FC 08 Homburg 9 4 2 3 12:12 14
8 Freiburg II 8 3 4 1 16:11 13
9 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 13:9 12
10 TSV Steinbach Haiger 9 3 3 3 13:13 12
11 Sandhausen 9 3 3 3 15:19 12
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 3 1 4 11:12 10
13 Kassel 9 3 1 5 15:17 10
14 Mainz II 9 3 0 6 10:19 9
15 Kaiserslautern II 8 2 2 4 6:17 8
16 Astoria Walldorf 9 1 3 5 11:17 6
17 Fulda-Lehnerz 9 1 2 6 13:21 5
18 Ulm 9 0 4 5 11:19 4
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)