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Mainz vs Holstein Kiel

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Tietz P.
30' Event
Konigsdorffer R.
51'
Sub
Tietz P. In: Becker S.
Out: Tietz P.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Mainz and Holstein Kiel finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mainz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Mainz
6%
Draws
4%
Holstein Kiel
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Mainz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Mainz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Mainz's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Mainz Clean Sheet 16%
Holstein Kiel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mainz Holstein Kiel
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 14 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 4.13 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 4.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2025 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Holstein Kiel
1:1
Nov 24, 2024 Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Mainz
0:3
Oct 24, 2017 DFB Pokal
Mainz vs Holstein Kiel
3:2
Dec 21, 2011 DFB Pokal
Holstein Kiel vs Mainz
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mainz Compare

Top Goalscorer Tietz P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Konigsdorffer R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.18
Avg xA / game 2.06

Holstein Kiel Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mainz 84 / 100
Holstein Kiel 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mainz Holstein Kiel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mainz found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (27 games).

Holstein Kiel let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Mainz remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mainz VS Holstein Kiel
4.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mainz

(Home)
17 Jul
Mainz
4 : 1
Kaiserslautern
11 Jul
Eisbachtal
0 : 10
Mainz
04 Jul
Pfeddersheim
0 : 11
Mainz
16 May
Heidenheim
0 : 2
Mainz
10 May
Mainz
1 : 3
Union Berlin
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Holstein Kiel

(Away)
18 Jul
Swansea
2 : 2
Holstein Kiel
15 Jul
Holstein Kiel
4 : 1
Al Ahli SC
10 Jul
Holstein Kiel
2 : 1
Sonderjyske
04 Jul
Holstein Kiel
1 : 3
Fredericia
17 May
Dresden
2 : 1
Holstein Kiel
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