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Mainz vs Samsunspor

Europe Europe

Conference League 2025/2026 Mewa Arena, Mainz
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Marius
33'
Sub
Ntcham O. In: Cift Y. E.
Out: Ntcham O.
44' Event
Widmer S.
Assist: Lee Jae-Sung

AI Match Summary

Mainz in this Conference League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mainz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Mainz
6%
Draws
4%
Samsunspor
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Mainz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Mainz have won more games recently than Samsunspor.
  • Model gives Mainz a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Mainz Clean Sheet 18%
Samsunspor Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mainz Samsunspor
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 13
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 4.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 4.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 18, 2025 Conference League
Mainz vs Samsunspor
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mainz Compare

Top Goalscorer Widmer S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 3.27
Avg xA / game 2.13

Samsunspor Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mainz 85 / 100
Samsunspor 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mainz Samsunspor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mainz's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Mainz went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Samsunspor let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Mainz VS Samsunspor
4.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mainz

(Home)
25 Jul
Mainz
3 : 0
Holstein Kiel
17 Jul
Mainz
4 : 1
Kaiserslautern
11 Jul
Eisbachtal
0 : 10
Mainz
04 Jul
Pfeddersheim
0 : 11
Mainz
16 May
Heidenheim
0 : 2
Mainz
Page 1 of 6

Samsunspor

(Away)
25 Jul
RAAL La Louviere
0 : 0
Samsunspor
22 Jul
Dunkerque
2 : 1
Samsunspor
16 May
Samsunspor
3 : 0
Goztepe
09 May
Basaksehir
3 : 0
Samsunspor
02 May
Samsunspor
4 : 1
Galatasaray
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Strasbourg651011:516
2Rakow Czestochowa64209:214
3AEK641114:713
4Sparta Prague641110:313
5Rayo Vallecano641113:713
6Shakhtar641110:513
7Mainz64117:313
8AEK Larnaca63307:112
9Lausanne63216:311
10Crystal Palace631211:610
11Lech Poznan631212:810
12Samsunspor631210:610
13Celje63128:710
14AZ Alkmaar63127:710
15Fiorentina63038:59
16Rijeka62315:29
17Jagiellonia62315:49
18Omonia62225:48
19Noah62226:78
20Drita62224:88
21KuPS61416:57
22Shkendija Tetovo62134:57
23Zrinjski62138:107
24Sigma Olomouc62137:97
25Univ. Craiova62136:87
26Lincoln Red Imps62137:157
27Dynamo Kyiv62049:96
28Legia62048:86
29Slovan Bratislava62045:96
30Breidablik61236:115
31Shamrock Rovers61147:134
32Hacken60335:83
33Hamrun61054:113
34Shelbourne60240:72
35Aberdeen60243:142
36Rapid Vienna60153:141
Promotion - Conference League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)