Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Malacateco vs Xinabajul

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2024/2025 Estadio Santa Lucía, Malacatán
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Yori E.
15' Event
Ramirez K.
27'
Perez Y. Y.

AI Match Summary

Malacateco in this Liga Nacional 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Malacateco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Malacateco
35%
Draws
19%
Xinabajul
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Malacateco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Malacateco have won more games recently than Xinabajul.
  • Win probability leans Malacateco's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Malacateco Clean Sheet 68%
Xinabajul Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malacateco Xinabajul
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 8 6
Draws 9 8
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 0.88 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2025 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Malacateco
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Xinabajul
1:0
Dec 1, 2024 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Xinabajul
0:0
Nov 28, 2024 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Malacateco
2:0
Oct 13, 2024 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Malacateco
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malacateco Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Xinabajul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malacateco 68 / 100
Xinabajul 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malacateco Xinabajul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malacateco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malacateco scored in 64% of their last 33 games.

Xinabajul let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Malacateco has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Malacateco VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Malacateco

(Home)
27 Sept
Marquense
1 : 0
Malacateco
21 Sept
Malacateco
1 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
14 Sept
Municipal
2 : 2
Malacateco
11 Sept
Malacateco
0 : 2
Antigua
06 Sept
Malacateco
2 : 0
Suchitepequez
Page 1 of 7

Xinabajul

(Away)
27 Apr
Comunicaciones
2 : 1
Xinabajul
24 Apr
Xinabajul
1 : 1
Guastatoya
20 Apr
Deportivo Mixco
3 : 1
Xinabajul
17 Apr
Xinabajul
0 : 0
Antigua
14 Apr
Xinabajul
1 : 1
Malacateco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Municipal 20 10 5 5 26:18 35
2 Comunicaciones 20 9 6 5 27:24 33
3 Antigua 20 9 5 6 30:24 32
4 Coban Imperial 20 10 2 8 26:25 32
5 Malacateco 20 8 5 7 30:26 29
6 Guastatoya 20 8 5 7 21:22 29
7 Marquense 20 7 6 7 18:19 27
8 Deportivo Mixco 20 6 7 7 21:23 25
9 Xelaju 20 6 6 8 28:25 24
10 Deportivo Achuapa 20 5 4 11 18:23 19
11 Xinabajul 20 4 5 11 21:37 17
12 Zacapa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2024/2025 (Clausura - Play Offs)