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Stadium Background

Malawi vs Burundi

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe
Malawi Logo

Malawi

2 - 3
FT
Burundi Logo

Burundi

Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Madjaliwa A.
22' Event
Idana C.
Own Goal
31' Event
Kaonga C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Burundi in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 tie, finishing 2-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Malawi
15%
Draws
51%
Burundi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Burundi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Burundi average 1.08 goals a game right now, well clear of Malawi's 0.86.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Burundi taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Burundi, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 21.200000000000003%
Malawi Clean Sheet 25%
Burundi Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malawi Burundi
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 8 8
Draws 5 4
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 0.86 1.08
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Burundi vs Malawi
0:0
Sep 5, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Malawi vs Burundi
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malawi Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaonga C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nkhoma L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Burundi Compare

Top Goalscorer Girumugisha J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eldhino M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malawi 29 / 100
Burundi 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malawi Burundi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burundi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Burundi conceded in 65% of 26 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Burundi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Malawi found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Malawi VS Burundi
0.75 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Malawi

(Home)
09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1
Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Malawi
31 Mar
Botswana
1 : 0
Malawi
28 Mar
Zambia U23
1 : 0
Malawi
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
Page 1 of 6

Burundi

(Away)
26 May
Morocco
5 : 0
Burundi
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0
Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4
Burundi
14 Oct
Gabon
2 : 0
Burundi
09 Oct
Burundi
0 : 1
Kenya
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comoros 6 3 3 0 7:4 12
2 Tunisia 6 3 1 2 7:6 10
3 Gambia 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
4 Madagascar 6 0 2 4 4:8 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 6 6 0 0 26:2 18
2 Gabon 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
3 Lesotho 6 1 1 4 2:13 4
4 Central Africa 6 1 0 5 3:14 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Botswana 6 2 2 2 4:7 8
3 Mauritania 6 2 1 3 3:6 7
4 Cape Verde 6 1 1 4 3:7 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nigeria 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
2 Benin 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
3 Rwanda 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
4 Libya 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 6 5 1 0 16:2 16
2 Equatorial Guinea 6 2 2 2 5:8 8
3 Togo 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
4 Liberia 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angola 6 4 2 0 7:2 14
2 Sudan 6 2 2 2 4:6 8
3 Niger 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
4 Ghana 6 0 3 3 3:7 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zambia 6 4 1 1 7:4 13
2 Ivory Coast 6 4 0 2 12:3 12
3 Sierra Leone 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
4 Chad 6 0 3 3 1:8 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 6 4 0 2 7:3 12
2 Tanzania 6 3 1 2 5:4 10
3 Guinea 6 3 0 3 9:5 9
4 Ethiopia 6 1 1 4 3:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mali 6 4 2 0 10:1 14
2 Mozambique 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
3 Guinea Bissau 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
4 Eswatini 6 0 2 4 2:13 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 6 4 2 0 8:2 14
2 Zimbabwe 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
3 Kenya 6 1 3 2 4:7 6
4 Namibia 6 0 2 4 2:7 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 6 4 2 0 16:5 14
2 Uganda 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
3 Congo 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
4 South Sudan 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 6 5 1 0 10:1 16
2 Burkina Faso 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
3 Burundi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4
4 Malawi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)