Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Bingu National Stadium

Malawi

2 - 3

Burundi

Our Tip

Match Events

21'

Madjaliwa A.

22'

Idana C.

Own Goal

31'

Kaonga C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Burundi in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Burundi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Malawi

44%

Draws

20%

Burundi

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Burundi have won more games recently than Malawi.
44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
European nights carry their own weight — this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Malawi Clean Sheet 24%

Burundi Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Malawi	Burundi
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	8	9
Draws	5	4
Losses	17	15
Goals Scored	1.13	1
Goals Conceded	0.88	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Burundi vs Malawi

Possession: 59% - 50% Cards: 0 - 3

0:0

Sep 5, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Malawi vs Burundi

Possession: 47% - 59% Cards: 3 - 0

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malawi Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaonga C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Nkhoma L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Burundi Compare

Top Goalscorer Girumugisha J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Eldhino M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malawi 37 / 100

Burundi 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Malawi Burundi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BUR Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burundi has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Away concern: Burundi has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Malawi scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Malawi VS Burundi

1.13 Goals Scored 1

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38

50% Over 1.5 63%

50% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Comoros	6	3	3	0	7:4	12
2	Tunisia	6	3	1	2	7:6	10
3	Gambia	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
4	Madagascar	6	0	2	4	4:8	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Morocco	6	6	0	0	26:2	18
2	Gabon	6	3	1	2	7:9	10
3	Lesotho	6	1	1	4	2:13	4
4	Central Africa	6	1	0	5	3:14	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt	6	4	2	0	12:2	14
2	Botswana	6	2	2	2	4:7	8
3	Mauritania	6	2	1	3	3:6	7
4	Cape Verde	6	1	1	4	3:7	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nigeria	6	3	2	1	9:3	11
2	Benin	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Rwanda	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
4	Libya	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Algeria	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Equatorial Guinea	6	2	2	2	5:8	8
3	Togo	6	1	2	3	7:10	5
4	Liberia	6	1	1	4	4:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angola	6	4	2	0	7:2	14
2	Sudan	6	2	2	2	4:6	8
3	Niger	6	2	1	3	7:6	7
4	Ghana	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zambia	6	4	1	1	7:4	13
2	Ivory Coast	6	4	0	2	12:3	12
3	Sierra Leone	6	1	2	3	5:10	5
4	Chad	6	0	3	3	1:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	D.R. Congo	6	4	0	2	7:3	12
2	Tanzania	6	3	1	2	5:4	10
3	Guinea	6	3	0	3	9:5	9
4	Ethiopia	6	1	1	4	3:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mali	6	4	2	0	10:1	14
2	Mozambique	6	3	2	1	9:5	11
3	Guinea Bissau	6	1	2	3	4:6	5
4	Eswatini	6	0	2	4	2:13	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cameroon	6	4	2	0	8:2	14
2	Zimbabwe	6	2	3	1	6:4	9
3	Kenya	6	1	3	2	4:7	6
4	Namibia	6	0	2	4	2:7	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Africa	6	4	2	0	16:5	14
2	Uganda	6	4	1	1	8:5	13
3	Congo	6	1	1	4	4:12	4
4	South Sudan	6	1	0	5	6:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Senegal	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Burkina Faso	6	3	1	2	10:7	10
3	Burundi	6	1	1	4	4:11	4
4	Malawi	6	1	1	4	6:11	4