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Stadium Background

Maldives vs Timor-Leste

Asia Asia

Asian Cup National Stadium, Male
Maldives Logo

Maldives

2 - 1
FT
Timor-Leste Logo

Timor-Leste

Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Freitas Gali In: Rangel J.
Out: Freitas Gali
46'
Sub
Mouzinho In: Cruz Z.
Out: Mouzinho
46'
Sub
Mahudhee Hussain I. In: Hassan M.
Out: Mahudhee Hussain I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Maldives
15%
Draws
0%
Timor-Leste
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Maldives

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Maldives have won more games recently than Timor-Leste.
  • Win probability leans Maldives's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Maldives have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Maldives, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Maldives Clean Sheet 68%
Timor-Leste Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maldives Timor-Leste
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 6
Draws 3 2
Losses 18 21
Goals Scored 0.86 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.83 2.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Asian Cup
Maldives vs Timor-Leste
2:1
Jun 10, 2025 Asian Cup
Timor-Leste vs Maldives
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maldives Compare

Top Goalscorer Irufaan M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Timor-Leste Compare

Top Goalscorer Bakhito A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maldives 77 / 100
Timor-Leste 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maldives Timor-Leste

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldives Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Timor-Leste's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Defensive concern: Timor-Leste conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Maldives scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Maldives VS Timor-Leste
0.38 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 2.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Maldives

(Home)
28 Sept
Kyrgyzstan
5 : 0
Maldives
24 Sept
China
3 : 0
Maldives
07 Jun
Maldives
1 : 1
Bangladesh U23
04 Jun
Maldives
0 : 3
Pakistan
01 Jun
Maldives
0 : 1
Afghanistan
Page 1 of 6

Timor-Leste

(Away)
24 Sept
Myanmar
2 : 0
Timor-Leste
03 Aug
Cambodia
3 : 0
Timor-Leste
31 Jul
Timor-Leste
0 : 3
Indonesia
27 Jul
Singapore
2 : 0
Timor-Leste
24 Jul
Timor-Leste
0 : 7
Vietnam
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tajikistan 6 4 2 0 14:3 14
2 Philippines 6 4 2 0 16:6 14
3 Maldives 6 1 0 5 3:13 3
4 Timor-Leste 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Yemen 6 4 2 0 20:1 14
2 Lebanon 6 4 1 1 14:2 13
3 Bhutan 6 1 1 4 4:16 4
4 Brunei 6 1 0 5 3:22 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Singapore 6 4 2 0 8:4 14
2 Hong Kong 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
3 Bangladesh 6 1 2 3 6:8 5
4 India 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thailand 6 5 0 1 16:5 15
2 Turkmenistan 6 4 0 2 11:7 12
3 Sri Lanka 6 3 0 3 8:9 9
4 Chinese Taipei 6 0 0 6 5:19 0
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Syria 6 6 0 0 21:2 18
2 Myanmar 6 4 0 2 8:11 12
3 Afghanistan 6 0 2 4 4:11 2
4 Pakistan 6 0 2 4 2:11 2
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam 6 6 0 0 17:2 18
2 Malaysia 6 3 0 3 10:10 9
3 Laos 6 2 0 4 4:16 6
4 Nepal 6 1 0 5 5:8 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)