Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mali vs Cape Verde - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Stade du 26 Mars, Bamako
Mali Logo

Mali

3 - 1
FT
Cape Verde Logo

Cape Verde

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Tia M.
Assist: Sinayoko L.
10' Event
Lopes Cabral S.
39' Event
Nene D.
Assist: Haidara A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Mali
35%
Draws
13%
Cape Verde
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Mali have managed 1.17 goals a game lately — Cape Verde are scoring more at 1.33.
  • Win probability leans Mali's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Mali, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Mali have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Mali Clean Sheet 68%
Cape Verde Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mali Cape Verde
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 11 7
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.17 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.52 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Mali vs Cape Verde
3:1
Sep 3, 2011 Africa Cup of Nations
Mali vs Cape Verde
3:0
Sep 4, 2010 Africa Cup of Nations
Cape Verde vs Mali
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mali Compare

Top Goalscorer Nene D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Tia M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Cape Verde Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopes Cabral S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mali 50 / 100
Cape Verde 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mali Cape Verde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Cape Verde conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Mali went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Cape Verde has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mali VS Cape Verde
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mali

(Home)
04 Oct
Morocco
1 : 1
Mali
29 Sept
Liberia
0 : 1
Mali
25 Sept
Mali
3 : 1
Cape Verde
04 Jun
Iran
2 : 0
Mali
31 Mar
Russia
0 : 0
Mali
Page 1 of 6

Cape Verde

(Away)
29 Sept
Cape Verde
1 : 2
Rwanda
25 Sept
Mali
3 : 1
Cape Verde
03 Jul
Argentina
3 : 2
Cape Verde
27 Jun
Cape Verde
0 : 0
Saudi Arabia
21 Jun
Uruguay
2 : 2
Cape Verde
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gabon 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Niger 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
4 Lesotho 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
2 Angola 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Malawi 2 1 0 1 3:4 3
4 South Sudan 2 0 0 2 1:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gambia 2 2 0 0 6:3 6
3 Somalia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
4 Ghana 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Guinea 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Eritrea 2 0 1 1 1:6 1
4 Kenya 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Zimbabwe 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
3 Equatorial Guinea 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Sierra Leone 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Benin 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Burkina Faso 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Mauritania 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
4 Central Africa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Comoros 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
3 Namibia 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
4 Congo 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
3 Tunisia 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
4 Libya 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
2 Zambia 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Togo 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Burundi 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Mozambique 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
3 Sudan 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
4 Ethiopia 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rwanda 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Mali 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Cape Verde 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
4 Liberia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guinea Bissau 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
2 Nigeria 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
3 Tanzania 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
4 Madagascar 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)