Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca

Mali

1 - 1

Zambia

Our Tip

Match Events

42'

Toure E. B.

Penalty Missed

61'

Sinayoko L.

65'

Dieng A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%

Mali

30%

Draws

16%

Zambia

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence

Mali carry the better recent record into this one.
Win probability leans Mali's way, sitting at 90%.
Mali have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Mali, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%

Mali Clean Sheet 68%

Zambia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mali	Zambia
Matches Played	28	25
Wins	12	7
Draws	10	4
Losses	6	14
Goals Scored	1.21	0.96
Goals Conceded	0.5	1.6
Expected Goals (xG)	1.31	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 22, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations

Mali vs Zambia

1:1

Sep 26, 2022 Friendly International

Mali vs Zambia

0:0

Sep 23, 2022 Friendly International

Mali vs Zambia

1:0

Jan 27, 2016 African Nations Championship

Zambia vs Mali

0:0

Jun 18, 2005 World Championship

Zambia vs Mali

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mali Compare

Top Goalscorer Sinayoko L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.01

Avg xA / game 0.66

Zambia Compare

Top Goalscorer Daka P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mali 95 / 100

Zambia 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mali Zambia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zambia let in goals in 64% of their last 25 matches.

Recent resilience: Mali stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Zambia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Mali found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

Mali VS Zambia

0.5 Goals Scored 0.5

0.75 Goals Conceded 2.13

50% Over 1.5 75%

13% Over 2.5 50%

0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mali

(Home)

25 Sept

Mali

3 : 1

Cape Verde

04 Jun

Iran

2 : 0

Mali

31 Mar

Russia

0 : 0

Mali

09 Jan

Mali

0 : 1

Senegal

03 Jan

Mali

2 : 1

Tunisia

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Zambia

(Away)

25 Sept

Algeria

3 : 1

Zambia

31 Mar

Argentina

5 : 0

Zambia

29 Dec

Zambia

0 : 3

Morocco

26 Dec

Zambia

0 : 0

Comoros

22 Dec

Mali

1 : 1

Zambia

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