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Mali W vs Guinea W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Women 2024
Mali W Logo

Mali W

7 - 2
FT
Guinea W Logo

Guinea W

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 7-2, with Mali W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Mali W
15%
Draws
36%
Guinea W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mali W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Mali W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Mali W's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Mali W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Guinea W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Mali W Clean Sheet 20%
Guinea W Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mali W Guinea W
Matches Played 35 29
Wins 14 5
Draws 9 5
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 2.14 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.14 2.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 5, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Guinea W vs Mali W
0:3
Nov 30, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Mali W vs Guinea W
7:2
Oct 25, 2021 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Guinea W vs Mali W
0:2
Oct 20, 2021 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Mali W vs Guinea W
2:2
Jun 5, 2010 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Mali W vs Guinea W
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mali W 40 / 100
Guinea W 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mali W Guinea W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Guinea W conceded in 93% of 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.

Mali W found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (34 games).

Away concern: Guinea W has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mali W VS Guinea W
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mali W

(Home)
08 Oct
Benin W
3 : 1
Mali W
06 Aug
Mali W
1 : 1
Ghana W
02 Aug
Mali W
3 : 2
Cape Verde W
29 Jul
Cameroon W
2 : 1
Mali W
20 Jul
Mali W
0 : 1
Ivory Coast W
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Guinea W

(Away)
10 Oct
Cameroon W
:
Guinea W
07 Oct
Guinea W
:
Cameroon W
26 May
Guinea W
4 : 3
Gambia W
24 May
Sierra Leone W
3 : 1
Guinea W
22 May
Senegal W
2 : 1
Guinea W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Senegal W 3
Mozambique W 2
Egypt W 8
South Sudan W 0
Central Africa W 1
Mali W 10
Guinea W 11
Mauritius W 0
Nigeria W -
Sao Tome and Principe W -
Cape Verde W 6
Liberia W 2
Uganda W 2
Algeria W 3
Burundi W 3
Ethiopia W 2
Equatorial Guinea W -
Libya W -
D.R. Congo W 4
Benin W 2
Ivory Coast W 2
Tanzania W 3
Djibouti W 0
Togo W 13
Rwanda W 0
Ghana W 12
Gambia W 2
Namibia W 5
Cameroon W 1
Kenya W 2
Gabon W 1
Botswana W 10
Tunisia W 12
Niger W 1
Guinea Bissau W 0
Congo W 3
Angola W -
Sudan W -
TBD -
Zambia W -
Eswatini W 2
Burkina Faso W 6
TBD -
South Africa W -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
Senegal W 4
Egypt W 0
Mali W 10
Guinea W 2
Nigeria W 7
Cape Verde W 1
Algeria W 6
Burundi W 1
Equatorial Guinea W 2
D.R. Congo W 3
Tanzania W 3
Togo W 2
Ghana W 3
Namibia W 2
Kenya W 1
Botswana W 2
Tunisia W 6
Congo W 3
Angola W 0
Zambia W 12
Burkina Faso W 1
South Africa W 3
TBD -
TBD -